President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current term extends through 2028 following his 2023 victory, with no scheduled early presidential election or constitutional mechanism likely to force an exit before December 31, 2026. Parliamentary majorities aligned with his AK Party and coalition partners have sustained legislative stability, while official statements from the presidency emphasize continuity in foreign policy and domestic priorities. Recent diplomatic engagements and economic policy announcements have reinforced institutional positioning without triggering succession signals. Traders price the implied probability of removal at just 6.5 percent for “Yes,” reflecting the absence of credible near-term catalysts such as snap votes, health-related transitions, or sustained opposition momentum capable of altering the timeline within the narrow remaining window.