Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with the next scheduled election no earlier than May 2028 and no formal vote, removal process, or succession trigger set before the end of 2026. Traders assign an implied 92 percent probability that he remains in office past December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of imminent catalysts such as health developments, snap elections, or constitutional changes that would force an earlier departure. Recent government actions, including legal proceedings against opposition figures like Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, have consolidated the ruling AKP’s position and reduced pressure for early transitions. Speculation around potential amendments or leadership succession remains focused on the 2028 horizon rather than any timeline before late 2026.