Recent meteorological models and ensemble guidance indicate peak temperatures in Chongqing on August 14 likely in the mid-30s Celsius range, consistent with trader clustering around the 34–35°C outcomes under persistent subtropical high pressure. Typical August humidity above 60 percent, light winds, and variable convective activity introduce uncertainty, as afternoon cloud cover or localized rainfall can suppress maxima by several degrees while clear conditions enhance solar heating. Historical climatology shows August averages near 33–34°C with occasional spikes above 38°C, and the broad probability distribution reflects model spread on boundary-layer mixing and urban heat retention. Official confirmation will come from China Meteorological Administration surface observations, with resolution hinging on the verified daily maximum.