Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Houston points to a classic late-summer subtropical ridge maintaining hot, humid conditions on August 11, with afternoon sea-breeze convergence and scattered thunderstorms likely capping daytime maxima in the mid-90s. Ensemble forecasts cluster around 93–95 °F, consistent with August climatology where the average high is near 95 °F and the 90th percentile reaches the upper 90s. Light steering flow and high precipitable water favor isolated convection that can shave a degree or two from peak readings, explaining the market’s strong weighting toward the 94–95 °F bin. Updated model runs through the evening of August 10 will refine whether stronger or weaker thunderstorm activity shifts the outcome toward 92–93 °F or 96–97 °F.