Current weather models and climatological data position 24°C as the leading outcome for Mexico City’s September 14 high temperature, with 23–25°C collectively capturing over 90% of market-implied odds. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city’s subtropical highland climate typically sees September daytime maxima moderated by frequent cloud cover and convective showers during the peak of the rainy season, limiting solar heating and keeping peaks near the long-term average of 23–24°C. Recent model consensus from global forecasting systems shows stable atmospheric patterns with no strong warming signals or clear-sky anomalies expected, while urban heat-island effects provide a slight upward bias that traders appear to price into the narrow 24–25°C range. Updated runs over the next 24 hours will refine precipitation timing and any late adjustments to maximum temperatures.