Recent model runs from major forecasting centers indicate Moscow's peak temperature on August 26 will likely fall in the 15–17°C range, with trader consensus reflecting tight spreads around these bins due to subtle differences in predicted maximums. A northerly airflow and increased cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating below late-August climatological norms of 20–22°C, while light drizzle and overcast conditions limit solar radiation. Ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any brief clearing or wind shifts, creating the close probabilities between 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could refine the peak before resolution.