Recent monthly CPI prints showing inflation rising to 4.45% in July 2026 from 4.38% in June—the highest level since late 2024—have anchored trader sentiment toward the 4.50%+ annual outcome for 2026. Elevated food and energy components, driven by Middle East supply disruptions, rupee depreciation, and adverse weather effects on crops, account for the acceleration while remaining inside the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance band. The central bank’s upward revision of its FY27 CPI projection to 5.1% from 4.6% further supports market-implied odds, reflecting persistent global commodity pressures. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming monsoon outcomes, RBI monetary policy decisions, and September inflation data that could confirm or moderate the current trajectory.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড4.50%+ 80%
3.75% to 4.49% 13.3%
<0.75% 4.0%
1.50% to 2.24% 2.8%
$78,329 Vol.
$78,329 Vol.
<0.75%
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
3%
2.25% to 2.99%
1%
3.00% to 3.74%
2%
3.75% to 4.49%
13%
4.50%+
80%
4.50%+ 80%
3.75% to 4.49% 13.3%
<0.75% 4.0%
1.50% to 2.24% 2.8%
$78,329 Vol.
$78,329 Vol.
<0.75%
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
3%
2.25% to 2.99%
1%
3.00% to 3.74%
2%
3.75% to 4.49%
13%
4.50%+
80%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent monthly CPI prints showing inflation rising to 4.45% in July 2026 from 4.38% in June—the highest level since late 2024—have anchored trader sentiment toward the 4.50%+ annual outcome for 2026. Elevated food and energy components, driven by Middle East supply disruptions, rupee depreciation, and adverse weather effects on crops, account for the acceleration while remaining inside the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance band. The central bank’s upward revision of its FY27 CPI projection to 5.1% from 4.6% further supports market-implied odds, reflecting persistent global commodity pressures. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming monsoon outcomes, RBI monetary policy decisions, and September inflation data that could confirm or moderate the current trajectory.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড



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