National Weather Service forecasts from the Houston/Galveston office indicate a minimum temperature near 81°F on August 22 under mostly clear skies, with light southwest winds and dew points in the mid-70s. Persistent subtropical high pressure and elevated humidity typical of late-summer Gulf Coast conditions limit overnight radiational cooling, keeping lows in the upper 70s to low 80s range rather than allowing sharper drops. Recent model consensus shows little day-to-day variability, though minor differences in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the exact hourly minimum by a degree or two. The closely matched Polymarket odds around 78–83°F capture this narrow uncertainty band, consistent with historical August minima in the city averaging near 78°F but elevated by the current warm anomaly.