Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) indicate Munich's August 21 maximum temperatures will most likely fall in the 20–23°C range, driven by variable high pressure and moderate southerly flow typical of late summer. This tight clustering of model guidance, with modest divergence on the timing of any weak fronts or increased cloud cover that could suppress peaks, underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 21°C. Traders weigh the potential for brief showers or thicker cloud layers against clearer intervals that might allow readings to edge higher, consistent with historical August highs near 22°C and the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature predictions.