Current forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF ensembles indicate a highest temperature near 25–26°C in Warsaw on August 21, driven by a typical late-summer cooling trend with daytime maxima declining from July peaks and moderating southwesterly flow bringing mild, moist air. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 25°C (31%) and 26°C (38.5%) implied probabilities aligns with this guidance, as scattered showers and increased cloud cover expected from an approaching frontal system limit surface heating. Key variables differentiating outcomes include model spread on timing of any clearing and boundary-layer moisture, which could allow brief radiative warming toward 27°C or suppress it below 25°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data from the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.