**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Paris on August 10 centers on 17–19°C, with 18°C leading at 36.5% implied probability and 19°C at 26.5%.** These outcomes reflect converging short-range forecasts showing overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, high-pressure conditions following a mid-week cooldown from earlier heat. Official guidance and model runs, including those aggregated from Météo-France, point to a minimum near 17–18°C as light winds and urban heat-island effects limit further drop. Climatological context supports this positioning: August nocturnal lows in Paris typically average 14–16°C, but recent warmth and the absence of a strong cold-air advection have elevated expectations. The modest probabilities on 16°C or below (5.5%) and 20°C+ reflect the narrow uncertainty band—small shifts in cloud cover, wind, or model bias could nudge the reading by 1–2°C. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model updates, plus any late-day observational tweaks from Paris stations, represent the key near-term catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds.