Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA and regional models indicate an overnight low in the 58–61°F range for Seattle on August 22, driven by a marine air mass, scattered showers, and persistent cloud cover that limit radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical late-August climatology, where daily minima average 57–59°F but can vary several degrees based on wind direction and cloud timing. Trader probabilities cluster tightly around 58–61°F because small differences in forecast timing or model resolution—such as NHC-adjacent guidance versus local mesoscale runs—create genuine uncertainty in the exact minimum, with no strong signal for extremes below 56°F or above 63°F. Updated model runs and official observations from Sea-Tac Airport will determine the final recorded value.