Megaquake odds heavily favor “No” at 92% because magnitude 8.0+ events remain statistically infrequent, with only a handful occurring worldwide each decade according to long-term USGS records. Recent seismic data through early June 2026 show the largest events limited to 7.5 in Tonga and 7.4 off Japan and Indonesia in spring, none approaching megaquake thresholds or triggering elevated alerts beyond localized aftershock advisories. No anomalous foreshock swarms, unusual strain measurements, or model consensus from monitoring agencies indicate imminent rupture on major subduction zones. The roughly four-week window to June 30 offers little time for rapid escalation under current conditions, though an unexpected stress transfer or unreported deep event could still alter the outlook.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$69,331 Vol.
$69,331 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$69,331 Vol.
$69,331 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Megaquake odds heavily favor “No” at 92% because magnitude 8.0+ events remain statistically infrequent, with only a handful occurring worldwide each decade according to long-term USGS records. Recent seismic data through early June 2026 show the largest events limited to 7.5 in Tonga and 7.4 off Japan and Indonesia in spring, none approaching megaquake thresholds or triggering elevated alerts beyond localized aftershock advisories. No anomalous foreshock swarms, unusual strain measurements, or model consensus from monitoring agencies indicate imminent rupture on major subduction zones. The roughly four-week window to June 30 offers little time for rapid escalation under current conditions, though an unexpected stress transfer or unreported deep event could still alter the outlook.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
ভলিউম
$69,331শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Megaquake odds heavily favor “No” at 92% because magnitude 8.0+ events remain statistically infrequent, with only a handful occurring worldwide each decade according to long-term USGS records. Recent seismic data through early June 2026 show the largest events limited to 7.5 in Tonga and 7.4 off Japan and Indonesia in spring, none approaching megaquake thresholds or triggering elevated alerts beyond localized aftershock advisories. No anomalous foreshock swarms, unusual strain measurements, or model consensus from monitoring agencies indicate imminent rupture on major subduction zones. The roughly four-week window to June 30 offers little time for rapid escalation under current conditions, though an unexpected stress transfer or unreported deep event could still alter the outlook.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ভলিউম
$69,331শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Megaquake odds heavily favor “No” at 92% because magnitude 8.0+ events remain statistically infrequent, with only a handful occurring worldwide each decade according to long-term USGS records. Recent seismic data through early June 2026 show the largest events limited to 7.5 in Tonga and 7.4 off Japan and Indonesia in spring, none approaching megaquake thresholds or triggering elevated alerts beyond localized aftershock advisories. No anomalous foreshock swarms, unusual strain measurements, or model consensus from monitoring agencies indicate imminent rupture on major subduction zones. The roughly four-week window to June 30 offers little time for rapid escalation under current conditions, though an unexpected stress transfer or unreported deep event could still alter the outlook.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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