Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning 57% in 2020, commands trader consensus at 93% implied probability in the Oregon U.S. Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic dominance—last electing a Republican senator in 1996—and a weak Republican primary field featuring perennial challengers like Jo Rae Perkins and Tim Skelton, who lack crossover appeal among independents comprising about a third of voters. With primaries on May 19, 2026, recent polling averages and forecasts from Cook Political Report rate the seat Safe Democratic, reflecting no major shifts from national midterm dynamics or local scandals in the past 30 days. Scenarios to challenge this include a surprise moderate GOP nominee emerging from the primary, a late-breaking Merkley controversy, or a strong Republican national environment boosting turnout in rural counties.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডনতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
93%
Republican
7%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$1,909 Vol.
93%
Republican
$1,035 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning 57% in 2020, commands trader consensus at 93% implied probability in the Oregon U.S. Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic dominance—last electing a Republican senator in 1996—and a weak Republican primary field featuring perennial challengers like Jo Rae Perkins and Tim Skelton, who lack crossover appeal among independents comprising about a third of voters. With primaries on May 19, 2026, recent polling averages and forecasts from Cook Political Report rate the seat Safe Democratic, reflecting no major shifts from national midterm dynamics or local scandals in the past 30 days. Scenarios to challenge this include a surprise moderate GOP nominee emerging from the primary, a late-breaking Merkley controversy, or a strong Republican national environment boosting turnout in rural counties.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$2,944শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning 57% in 2020, commands trader consensus at 93% implied probability in the Oregon U.S. Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic dominance—last electing a Republican senator in 1996—and a weak Republican primary field featuring perennial challengers like Jo Rae Perkins and Tim Skelton, who lack crossover appeal among independents comprising about a third of voters. With primaries on May 19, 2026, recent polling averages and forecasts from Cook Political Report rate the seat Safe Democratic, reflecting no major shifts from national midterm dynamics or local scandals in the past 30 days. Scenarios to challenge this include a surprise moderate GOP nominee emerging from the primary, a late-breaking Merkley controversy, or a strong Republican national environment boosting turnout in rural counties.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ভলিউম
$2,944শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term after winning 57% in 2020, commands trader consensus at 93% implied probability in the Oregon U.S. Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic dominance—last electing a Republican senator in 1996—and a weak Republican primary field featuring perennial challengers like Jo Rae Perkins and Tim Skelton, who lack crossover appeal among independents comprising about a third of voters. With primaries on May 19, 2026, recent polling averages and forecasts from Cook Political Report rate the seat Safe Democratic, reflecting no major shifts from national midterm dynamics or local scandals in the past 30 days. Scenarios to challenge this include a surprise moderate GOP nominee emerging from the primary, a late-breaking Merkley controversy, or a strong Republican national environment boosting turnout in rural counties.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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