Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote against a divided Republican field, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election in California's 45th district. Redistricting after 2024 produced a modest Democratic lean in this Orange County seat, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic. Tran benefits from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and alignment with statewide trends favoring Democrats in a midterm cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national swing toward Republicans could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's current partisan baseline.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
$32,536 Vol.
$32,536 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
$32,536 Vol.
$32,536 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$19,078 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$13,457 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote against a divided Republican field, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election in California's 45th district. Redistricting after 2024 produced a modest Democratic lean in this Orange County seat, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic. Tran benefits from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and alignment with statewide trends favoring Democrats in a midterm cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national swing toward Republicans could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's current partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ভলিউম
$32,536শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote against a divided Republican field, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election in California's 45th district. Redistricting after 2024 produced a modest Democratic lean in this Orange County seat, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic. Tran benefits from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and alignment with statewide trends favoring Democrats in a midterm cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national swing toward Republicans could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's current partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$32,536শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote against a divided Republican field, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election in California's 45th district. Redistricting after 2024 produced a modest Democratic lean in this Orange County seat, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic. Tran benefits from incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and alignment with statewide trends favoring Democrats in a midterm cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national swing toward Republicans could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's current partisan baseline.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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