Traders assign a 99.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistics buildup in recent weeks. Beijing continues to rely on gray-zone pressure, including routine People’s Liberation Army aircraft and coast guard patrols around the island, alongside diplomatic warnings over U.S. arms sales and new border regulations affecting Taiwanese travelers. No verified major military or diplomatic escalation has occurred in the past 30 days that would signal a shift to kinetic action. A full-scale invasion remains constrained by preparation timelines, economic costs, and the risk of U.S. and allied intervention. Late developments capable of altering this consensus within the narrow window would require an abrupt, large-scale mobilization or an unforeseen triggering incident, neither of which appears underway.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড<1% সম্ভাবনা
$2,119,679 Vol.
$2,119,679 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% সম্ভাবনা
$2,119,679 Vol.
$2,119,679 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistics buildup in recent weeks. Beijing continues to rely on gray-zone pressure, including routine People’s Liberation Army aircraft and coast guard patrols around the island, alongside diplomatic warnings over U.S. arms sales and new border regulations affecting Taiwanese travelers. No verified major military or diplomatic escalation has occurred in the past 30 days that would signal a shift to kinetic action. A full-scale invasion remains constrained by preparation timelines, economic costs, and the risk of U.S. and allied intervention. Late developments capable of altering this consensus within the narrow window would require an abrupt, large-scale mobilization or an unforeseen triggering incident, neither of which appears underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
ভলিউম
$2,119,679শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistics buildup in recent weeks. Beijing continues to rely on gray-zone pressure, including routine People’s Liberation Army aircraft and coast guard patrols around the island, alongside diplomatic warnings over U.S. arms sales and new border regulations affecting Taiwanese travelers. No verified major military or diplomatic escalation has occurred in the past 30 days that would signal a shift to kinetic action. A full-scale invasion remains constrained by preparation timelines, economic costs, and the risk of U.S. and allied intervention. Late developments capable of altering this consensus within the narrow window would require an abrupt, large-scale mobilization or an unforeseen triggering incident, neither of which appears underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ভলিউম
$2,119,679শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistics buildup in recent weeks. Beijing continues to rely on gray-zone pressure, including routine People’s Liberation Army aircraft and coast guard patrols around the island, alongside diplomatic warnings over U.S. arms sales and new border regulations affecting Taiwanese travelers. No verified major military or diplomatic escalation has occurred in the past 30 days that would signal a shift to kinetic action. A full-scale invasion remains constrained by preparation timelines, economic costs, and the risk of U.S. and allied intervention. Late developments capable of altering this consensus within the narrow window would require an abrupt, large-scale mobilization or an unforeseen triggering incident, neither of which appears underway.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা