Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global surveys has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 100-kiloton energy release in 2026. Catalog completeness for objects above roughly 100 meters exceeds 95 percent, and orbital models show no imminent threats through year-end. This underpins the 97.1 percent market-implied probability for “No,” consistent with the rarity of such impacts, which occur on multi-decade timescales. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from possible undiscovered small, high-velocity fragments, though continued observations through late 2026 make any undetected strike highly improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
2% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
2% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global surveys has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 100-kiloton energy release in 2026. Catalog completeness for objects above roughly 100 meters exceeds 95 percent, and orbital models show no imminent threats through year-end. This underpins the 97.1 percent market-implied probability for “No,” consistent with the rarity of such impacts, which occur on multi-decade timescales. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from possible undiscovered small, high-velocity fragments, though continued observations through late 2026 make any undetected strike highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$8,955Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global surveys has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 100-kiloton energy release in 2026. Catalog completeness for objects above roughly 100 meters exceeds 95 percent, and orbital models show no imminent threats through year-end. This underpins the 97.1 percent market-implied probability for “No,” consistent with the rarity of such impacts, which occur on multi-decade timescales. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from possible undiscovered small, high-velocity fragments, though continued observations through late 2026 make any undetected strike highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$8,955Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global surveys has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 100-kiloton energy release in 2026. Catalog completeness for objects above roughly 100 meters exceeds 95 percent, and orbital models show no imminent threats through year-end. This underpins the 97.1 percent market-implied probability for “No,” consistent with the rarity of such impacts, which occur on multi-decade timescales. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from possible undiscovered small, high-velocity fragments, though continued observations through late 2026 make any undetected strike highly improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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