Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and ESA shows no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton energy release in 2026, underpinning the 93.8% market-implied odds against such an event. Surveys have ruled out significant risks from catalogued objects, with multiple close approaches this year posing zero impact probability. Statistically, impacts of this scale—roughly 10–20 meters across—are infrequent, occurring perhaps once every few decades, and undetected threats remain unlikely given improved detection rates. A sudden discovery of a small, fast-moving body or long-period comet could theoretically alter this, though current orbital data and ongoing observations make rapid shifts improbable before year-end.