NASA and ESA planetary defense systems have identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy through the remainder of 2026. Continuous surveys, including recent close approaches by asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 LV, confirm safe miss distances measured in lunar radii or greater. Statistically, bolides releasing this yield occur on multi-decade timescales, consistent with the sparse record of events like the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. While new small-object discoveries remain possible before year-end, current detection thresholds and orbital modeling render such an impact highly improbable, anchoring trader consensus on the strong "No" outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
100kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA planetary defense systems have identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy through the remainder of 2026. Continuous surveys, including recent close approaches by asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 LV, confirm safe miss distances measured in lunar radii or greater. Statistically, bolides releasing this yield occur on multi-decade timescales, consistent with the sparse record of events like the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. While new small-object discoveries remain possible before year-end, current detection thresholds and orbital modeling render such an impact highly improbable, anchoring trader consensus on the strong "No" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$8,238Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA planetary defense systems have identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy through the remainder of 2026. Continuous surveys, including recent close approaches by asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 LV, confirm safe miss distances measured in lunar radii or greater. Statistically, bolides releasing this yield occur on multi-decade timescales, consistent with the sparse record of events like the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. While new small-object discoveries remain possible before year-end, current detection thresholds and orbital modeling render such an impact highly improbable, anchoring trader consensus on the strong "No" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$8,238Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA and ESA planetary defense systems have identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy through the remainder of 2026. Continuous surveys, including recent close approaches by asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 LV, confirm safe miss distances measured in lunar radii or greater. Statistically, bolides releasing this yield occur on multi-decade timescales, consistent with the sparse record of events like the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. While new small-object discoveries remain possible before year-end, current detection thresholds and orbital modeling render such an impact highly improbable, anchoring trader consensus on the strong "No" outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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