Extensive NASA and ESA surveys of near-Earth objects confirm no known asteroids or comets large enough to deliver 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy are on collision courses with Earth in 2026, underpinning the 92.3% market-implied probability of no such strike. Ongoing orbital tracking, including recent close approaches like 2026 JH2 that posed zero impact risk, combined with historical data showing impacts of this scale occur roughly once per century on average, reinforces trader consensus. While an undetected sub-50-meter object could theoretically evade current detection networks, the expanding survey coverage and absence of elevated risk signals in 2026 fireball reports make this highly improbable before year-end.