Near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and partner agencies shows no known asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or ground impact during 2026, underpinning the 95.3% market-implied probability of no such event. Statistical records place impacts of this energy scale—comparable to or smaller than the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide—at intervals of decades to centuries, with most objects in the relevant size range (roughly 20–50 meters) either detected well in advance or ruled out by ongoing surveys. Continuous radar and optical tracking, combined with refined population models, further reduces undetected-threat likelihood, though small, recently fragmented objects could theoretically evade early detection until close approach.