Trader consensus on a 100kt meteor strike in 2026 heavily favors "No" at 93.8% because NASA’s Sentry system and ESA’s risk lists show no cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year, consistent with the low baseline frequency of such events—roughly once per several decades to a century based on bolide records. Recent 2026 surges in smaller fireballs, including multiple 50+ report events tracked by the American Meteor Society, reflect atmospheric entries of meter-scale objects but do not alter the statistical outlook for 100kt-scale airbursts equivalent to the Chelyabinsk event. Ongoing telescopic surveys and orbital refinements continue to reduce uncertainty for known asteroids, though undetected smaller impactors remain possible within model margins.