**Trader consensus favoring an 87% implied probability of “No” on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through early September.** Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows an active eastern Pacific season with storms such as Lowell and Marie, yet none have reached the intensity or steering patterns needed for a U.S. Category 5 landfall. Seismic networks including the USGS have recorded several 7+ events, including a 7.7 in Indonesia and 7.4 in Colombia, but all remain well below the 8.5 threshold. No volcanic explosivity index of 6 or higher has been confirmed, and no large bolide impacts have been reported. With roughly 3.5 months remaining and these extreme thresholds historically rare, the market reflects the low likelihood of one or more such outliers occurring before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
13% Chance
$245,819 Vol.
$245,819 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
13% Chance
$245,819 Vol.
$245,819 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**Trader consensus favoring an 87% implied probability of “No” on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through early September.** Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows an active eastern Pacific season with storms such as Lowell and Marie, yet none have reached the intensity or steering patterns needed for a U.S. Category 5 landfall. Seismic networks including the USGS have recorded several 7+ events, including a 7.7 in Indonesia and 7.4 in Colombia, but all remain well below the 8.5 threshold. No volcanic explosivity index of 6 or higher has been confirmed, and no large bolide impacts have been reported. With roughly 3.5 months remaining and these extreme thresholds historically rare, the market reflects the low likelihood of one or more such outliers occurring before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$245,819Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**Trader consensus favoring an 87% implied probability of “No” on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through early September.** Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows an active eastern Pacific season with storms such as Lowell and Marie, yet none have reached the intensity or steering patterns needed for a U.S. Category 5 landfall. Seismic networks including the USGS have recorded several 7+ events, including a 7.7 in Indonesia and 7.4 in Colombia, but all remain well below the 8.5 threshold. No volcanic explosivity index of 6 or higher has been confirmed, and no large bolide impacts have been reported. With roughly 3.5 months remaining and these extreme thresholds historically rare, the market reflects the low likelihood of one or more such outliers occurring before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$245,819Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring an 87% implied probability of “No” on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through early September.** Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows an active eastern Pacific season with storms such as Lowell and Marie, yet none have reached the intensity or steering patterns needed for a U.S. Category 5 landfall. Seismic networks including the USGS have recorded several 7+ events, including a 7.7 in Indonesia and 7.4 in Colombia, but all remain well below the 8.5 threshold. No volcanic explosivity index of 6 or higher has been confirmed, and no large bolide impacts have been reported. With roughly 3.5 months remaining and these extreme thresholds historically rare, the market reflects the low likelihood of one or more such outliers occurring before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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