Trader consensus favoring “No” at 74.5% reflects the lack of any qualifying natural disaster through mid-2026, as confirmed by USGS seismic records and NOAA climate monitoring showing below-average activity in major basins. Historical baselines indicate roughly one to two events exceeding standard magnitude or intensity thresholds occur annually, yet current atmospheric and tectonic conditions have not produced the sustained wind speeds, seismic magnitudes, or precipitation extremes needed for resolution. Official agency outlooks through year-end will incorporate updated ENSO indices and seasonal forecasts, introducing the primary variables that could still shift probabilities before December 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
$221,593 Vol.
$221,593 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$221,593 Vol.
$221,593 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring “No” at 74.5% reflects the lack of any qualifying natural disaster through mid-2026, as confirmed by USGS seismic records and NOAA climate monitoring showing below-average activity in major basins. Historical baselines indicate roughly one to two events exceeding standard magnitude or intensity thresholds occur annually, yet current atmospheric and tectonic conditions have not produced the sustained wind speeds, seismic magnitudes, or precipitation extremes needed for resolution. Official agency outlooks through year-end will incorporate updated ENSO indices and seasonal forecasts, introducing the primary variables that could still shift probabilities before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$221,593Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring “No” at 74.5% reflects the lack of any qualifying natural disaster through mid-2026, as confirmed by USGS seismic records and NOAA climate monitoring showing below-average activity in major basins. Historical baselines indicate roughly one to two events exceeding standard magnitude or intensity thresholds occur annually, yet current atmospheric and tectonic conditions have not produced the sustained wind speeds, seismic magnitudes, or precipitation extremes needed for resolution. Official agency outlooks through year-end will incorporate updated ENSO indices and seasonal forecasts, introducing the primary variables that could still shift probabilities before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$221,593Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring “No” at 74.5% reflects the lack of any qualifying natural disaster through mid-2026, as confirmed by USGS seismic records and NOAA climate monitoring showing below-average activity in major basins. Historical baselines indicate roughly one to two events exceeding standard magnitude or intensity thresholds occur annually, yet current atmospheric and tectonic conditions have not produced the sustained wind speeds, seismic magnitudes, or precipitation extremes needed for resolution. Official agency outlooks through year-end will incorporate updated ENSO indices and seasonal forecasts, introducing the primary variables that could still shift probabilities before December 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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