Recent U.S.-Iran tensions and related proxy actions earlier in 2026 ended without meeting the market’s explicit triggers such as a direct U.S. invasion or regime change. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen have produced localized advances but no Russian move against NATO territory or comparable escalations. President Trump remains in office with stable approval readings near 38 percent, while no major leadership changes have occurred in China or Iran. Bitcoin prices and global seismic activity have stayed within defined bounds. With these high-threshold criteria still unmet and limited time remaining before year-end, trader pricing reflects consensus that the listed paradigm-shifting events are unlikely to materialize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNichts passiert jemals: 2026
Nichts passiert jemals: 2026
Ja
83% Chance
$787,787 Vol.
$787,787 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
Ja
83% Chance
$787,787 Vol.
$787,787 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfRecent U.S.-Iran tensions and related proxy actions earlier in 2026 ended without meeting the market’s explicit triggers such as a direct U.S. invasion or regime change. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen have produced localized advances but no Russian move against NATO territory or comparable escalations. President Trump remains in office with stable approval readings near 38 percent, while no major leadership changes have occurred in China or Iran. Bitcoin prices and global seismic activity have stayed within defined bounds. With these high-threshold criteria still unmet and limited time remaining before year-end, trader pricing reflects consensus that the listed paradigm-shifting events are unlikely to materialize.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$787,787Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfRecent U.S.-Iran tensions and related proxy actions earlier in 2026 ended without meeting the market’s explicit triggers such as a direct U.S. invasion or regime change. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen have produced localized advances but no Russian move against NATO territory or comparable escalations. President Trump remains in office with stable approval readings near 38 percent, while no major leadership changes have occurred in China or Iran. Bitcoin prices and global seismic activity have stayed within defined bounds. With these high-threshold criteria still unmet and limited time remaining before year-end, trader pricing reflects consensus that the listed paradigm-shifting events are unlikely to materialize.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Volumen
$787,787Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran tensions and related proxy actions earlier in 2026 ended without meeting the market’s explicit triggers such as a direct U.S. invasion or regime change. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen have produced localized advances but no Russian move against NATO territory or comparable escalations. President Trump remains in office with stable approval readings near 38 percent, while no major leadership changes have occurred in China or Iran. Bitcoin prices and global seismic activity have stayed within defined bounds. With these high-threshold criteria still unmet and limited time remaining before year-end, trader pricing reflects consensus that the listed paradigm-shifting events are unlikely to materialize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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