Trader consensus prices a 55% implied probability for no major triggering events through December 31, 2026, reflecting stability in high-risk geopolitical flashpoints after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced April 10 de-escalated tensions from recent presidential threats and airstrikes, preserving the Iranian regime without a U.S. invasion. President Trump remains in office, Xi Jinping holds power, Bitcoin trades between $10,000 and $1 million, and no extreme natural disasters like a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption or 9.0+ earthquake have struck. Russia shows no NATO incursion signals, but November midterms loom as a key risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, alongside tail risks like China-Taiwan escalation or Epstein revelations, keeping the year-end outcome closely contested.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNichts passiert jemals: 2026
Nichts passiert jemals: 2026
Ja
$511,937 Vol.
$511,937 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$511,937 Vol.
$511,937 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 55% implied probability for no major triggering events through December 31, 2026, reflecting stability in high-risk geopolitical flashpoints after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced April 10 de-escalated tensions from recent presidential threats and airstrikes, preserving the Iranian regime without a U.S. invasion. President Trump remains in office, Xi Jinping holds power, Bitcoin trades between $10,000 and $1 million, and no extreme natural disasters like a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption or 9.0+ earthquake have struck. Russia shows no NATO incursion signals, but November midterms loom as a key risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, alongside tail risks like China-Taiwan escalation or Epstein revelations, keeping the year-end outcome closely contested.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$511,937Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 55% implied probability for no major triggering events through December 31, 2026, reflecting stability in high-risk geopolitical flashpoints after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced April 10 de-escalated tensions from recent presidential threats and airstrikes, preserving the Iranian regime without a U.S. invasion. President Trump remains in office, Xi Jinping holds power, Bitcoin trades between $10,000 and $1 million, and no extreme natural disasters like a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption or 9.0+ earthquake have struck. Russia shows no NATO incursion signals, but November midterms loom as a key risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, alongside tail risks like China-Taiwan escalation or Epstein revelations, keeping the year-end outcome closely contested.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volumen
$511,937Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 55% implied probability for no major triggering events through December 31, 2026, reflecting stability in high-risk geopolitical flashpoints after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced April 10 de-escalated tensions from recent presidential threats and airstrikes, preserving the Iranian regime without a U.S. invasion. President Trump remains in office, Xi Jinping holds power, Bitcoin trades between $10,000 and $1 million, and no extreme natural disasters like a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption or 9.0+ earthquake have struck. Russia shows no NATO incursion signals, but November midterms loom as a key risk for a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority, alongside tail risks like China-Taiwan escalation or Epstein revelations, keeping the year-end outcome closely contested.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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