Elevated spring and early summer severe weather outbreaks, including multiple Midwest events with over 290 confirmed tornadoes in April alone, have driven the 2026 U.S. tornado count well above historical averages by early September, exceeding 1,400 preliminary reports. National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center data show sustained above-normal activity through July and August, consistent with warmer atmospheric patterns favoring convective instability. This positions the annual total near or above the upper end of the typical 1,000–1,600 range, supporting strong trader consensus around 1,250 or more. Remaining fall activity tied to any late-season patterns or tropical remnants introduces modest uncertainty, though climatological norms suggest limited additions before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Tornados gab es 2026 in den USA?
Wie viele Tornados gab es 2026 in den USA?
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 4.5%
1200–1249 4.2%
1100–1149 3.6%
$83,038 Vol.
$83,038 Vol.
9. Jan. 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
5%
1200–1249
4%
1250+
91%
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 4.5%
1200–1249 4.2%
1100–1149 3.6%
$83,038 Vol.
$83,038 Vol.
9. Jan. 2027
<950
$23,841 Vol.
<1%
950–999
$3,731 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,289 Vol.
1%
1100–1149
$3,368 Vol.
4%
1150–1199
$4,192 Vol.
5%
1200–1249
$16,027 Vol.
4%
1250+
$19,139 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated spring and early summer severe weather outbreaks, including multiple Midwest events with over 290 confirmed tornadoes in April alone, have driven the 2026 U.S. tornado count well above historical averages by early September, exceeding 1,400 preliminary reports. National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center data show sustained above-normal activity through July and August, consistent with warmer atmospheric patterns favoring convective instability. This positions the annual total near or above the upper end of the typical 1,000–1,600 range, supporting strong trader consensus around 1,250 or more. Remaining fall activity tied to any late-season patterns or tropical remnants introduces modest uncertainty, though climatological norms suggest limited additions before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volumen
$83,038Enddatum
10. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated spring and early summer severe weather outbreaks, including multiple Midwest events with over 290 confirmed tornadoes in April alone, have driven the 2026 U.S. tornado count well above historical averages by early September, exceeding 1,400 preliminary reports. National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center data show sustained above-normal activity through July and August, consistent with warmer atmospheric patterns favoring convective instability. This positions the annual total near or above the upper end of the typical 1,000–1,600 range, supporting strong trader consensus around 1,250 or more. Remaining fall activity tied to any late-season patterns or tropical remnants introduces modest uncertainty, though climatological norms suggest limited additions before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$83,038Enddatum
10. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Elevated spring and early summer severe weather outbreaks, including multiple Midwest events with over 290 confirmed tornadoes in April alone, have driven the 2026 U.S. tornado count well above historical averages by early September, exceeding 1,400 preliminary reports. National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center data show sustained above-normal activity through July and August, consistent with warmer atmospheric patterns favoring convective instability. This positions the annual total near or above the upper end of the typical 1,000–1,600 range, supporting strong trader consensus around 1,250 or more. Remaining fall activity tied to any late-season patterns or tropical remnants introduces modest uncertainty, though climatological norms suggest limited additions before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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