Traders assign a 93.8% probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because such events are exceptionally rare on human timescales, with the last confirmed instance—the 2011 Tōhoku quake—occurring more than 15 years ago and prior M9+ events spaced decades apart according to USGS records. Ongoing global monitoring by the USGS shows 2025–2026 activity limited to maximum magnitudes around 8.8 in Kamchatka and several 7.8 events elsewhere, well below the megathrust thresholds needed for full-margin ruptures on subduction zones. Seismic hazard models indicate average recurrence intervals of 300–800 years or longer for M9+ quakes, and no short-term precursors or model consensus currently signal elevated risk in the remaining months of 2026. A sudden, unexpected full-margin event in a high-hazard zone such as Cascadia could still alter outcomes, though long-term probabilities place that likelihood well below 15% even over multi-decade windows.