**Trader consensus on "No" at 95.5% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes and the brief remaining window through December 2026.** USGS records show only a handful of confirmed events at this threshold since 1900—the 1960 Chile (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), and 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1) quakes among them—yielding an annual base rate well below 10% and often closer to 5% or lower depending on catalog methodology. No 8.0+ events have occurred in 2026 despite several magnitude 7+ shocks (including a 7.8 off Mindanao and a 7.7 in the Flores Sea), consistent with typical yearly patterns of roughly one great earthquake globally. Megathrust ruptures capable of reaching 9.0 require specific subduction-zone conditions, long fault lengths, and substantial slip that monitoring networks have not indicated are imminent in the next few months. The primary uncertainty lies in the inherent unpredictability of individual events; an unforeseen full-margin failure in a high-strain subduction zone such as Cascadia or southern Chile could still occur, though current seismic and geodetic data provide no supporting precursors within the resolution timeline.