Traders currently favor the 14–16 outcome for magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 at 46% implied probability because global activity through mid-year remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–18 events annually. Recent events including the 7.8 offshore Philippines in June, the 7.5 Venezuela doublet, and the 7.3 Mexico quake have added to the count but not triggered a sustained uptick. Year-to-year variability in subduction-zone clustering and aftershock sequences creates uncertainty, with the 17–19 bin at 30% reflecting potential rebound in the second half. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred, and USGS monitoring plus ongoing catalog updates will determine final totals amid inherent seismic unpredictability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Erdbeben mit einer Stärke von 7,0 oder mehr im Jahr 2026?
14–16 45%
17–19 30%
11–13 19%
20+ 8.1%
$1,365,033 Vol.
$1,365,033 Vol.
8–10
1%
11–13
19%
14–16
45%
17–19
30%
20+
8%
14–16 45%
17–19 30%
11–13 19%
20+ 8.1%
$1,365,033 Vol.
$1,365,033 Vol.
8–10
1%
11–13
19%
14–16
45%
17–19
30%
20+
8%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders currently favor the 14–16 outcome for magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 at 46% implied probability because global activity through mid-year remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–18 events annually. Recent events including the 7.8 offshore Philippines in June, the 7.5 Venezuela doublet, and the 7.3 Mexico quake have added to the count but not triggered a sustained uptick. Year-to-year variability in subduction-zone clustering and aftershock sequences creates uncertainty, with the 17–19 bin at 30% reflecting potential rebound in the second half. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred, and USGS monitoring plus ongoing catalog updates will determine final totals amid inherent seismic unpredictability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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