Recent test flights through mid-2026, including the debut of Starship Version 3 on Flight 12 and a mostly successful Flight 13 with improved heat shield performance and engine relights, have reinforced trader confidence that SpaceX will achieve tower catches for both the Super Heavy booster and upper stage soon. Elon Musk has publicly targeted full reusability demonstrations—catching and rapidly reusing the entire vehicle—in 2026, supported by V3 avionics, structural upgrades, and propellant transfer milestones aimed at high-cadence operations. With 13 integrated flights completed and ongoing efforts toward orbital attempts and catch attempts in the coming months, the market-implied 76.5% probability for yes reflects accumulated progress on reusability benchmarks while acknowledging risks from technical hurdles or regulatory delays before the 2028 threshold.