Traders assign an implied 92% probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Parlay due to the demanding requirement that Elon Musk reach $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirm another child, and achieve at least nine SpaceX Starship launches reaching space—all within 2026. Musk's current valuation hovers near $700–850 billion amid Tesla share volatility around $390 and SpaceX IPO preparations that have yet to deliver a Bloomberg-confirmed trillionaire milestone. Starship testing remains limited, with just one 2026 flight completed by late May and historical cadence making nine successful orbital attempts improbable. No new child announcement has surfaced since early 2025. While SpaceX progress or a sharp TSLA rally could narrow the gap, the combined hurdles sustain strong consensus against full resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$10,620 Vol.
$10,620 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$10,620 Vol.
$10,620 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign an implied 92% probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Parlay due to the demanding requirement that Elon Musk reach $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirm another child, and achieve at least nine SpaceX Starship launches reaching space—all within 2026. Musk's current valuation hovers near $700–850 billion amid Tesla share volatility around $390 and SpaceX IPO preparations that have yet to deliver a Bloomberg-confirmed trillionaire milestone. Starship testing remains limited, with just one 2026 flight completed by late May and historical cadence making nine successful orbital attempts improbable. No new child announcement has surfaced since early 2025. While SpaceX progress or a sharp TSLA rally could narrow the gap, the combined hurdles sustain strong consensus against full resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$10,620Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign an implied 92% probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Parlay due to the demanding requirement that Elon Musk reach $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirm another child, and achieve at least nine SpaceX Starship launches reaching space—all within 2026. Musk's current valuation hovers near $700–850 billion amid Tesla share volatility around $390 and SpaceX IPO preparations that have yet to deliver a Bloomberg-confirmed trillionaire milestone. Starship testing remains limited, with just one 2026 flight completed by late May and historical cadence making nine successful orbital attempts improbable. No new child announcement has surfaced since early 2025. While SpaceX progress or a sharp TSLA rally could narrow the gap, the combined hurdles sustain strong consensus against full resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volumen
$10,620Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an implied 92% probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Parlay due to the demanding requirement that Elon Musk reach $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirm another child, and achieve at least nine SpaceX Starship launches reaching space—all within 2026. Musk's current valuation hovers near $700–850 billion amid Tesla share volatility around $390 and SpaceX IPO preparations that have yet to deliver a Bloomberg-confirmed trillionaire milestone. Starship testing remains limited, with just one 2026 flight completed by late May and historical cadence making nine successful orbital attempts improbable. No new child announcement has surfaced since early 2025. While SpaceX progress or a sharp TSLA rally could narrow the gap, the combined hurdles sustain strong consensus against full resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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