Robust near-Earth object surveillance by NASA and partner agencies underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability of no 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026. Continuous tracking of potentially hazardous asteroids shows no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy threshold through year-end, with all documented 2026 flybys remaining far smaller and safely distant. Ongoing small-fireball detections have stayed well below impact levels, while programs like NEO Surveyor continue advancing detection capabilities without identifying near-term risks. Traders price in these verified monitoring results alongside the low statistical frequency of such events, though last-minute undiscovered objects remain a remote uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGroßer Meteoreinschlag (10kt+) im Jahr 2026?
Großer Meteoreinschlag (10kt+) im Jahr 2026?
Ja
11% Chance
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
Ja
11% Chance
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Robust near-Earth object surveillance by NASA and partner agencies underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability of no 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026. Continuous tracking of potentially hazardous asteroids shows no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy threshold through year-end, with all documented 2026 flybys remaining far smaller and safely distant. Ongoing small-fireball detections have stayed well below impact levels, while programs like NEO Surveyor continue advancing detection capabilities without identifying near-term risks. Traders price in these verified monitoring results alongside the low statistical frequency of such events, though last-minute undiscovered objects remain a remote uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$179,084Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Robust near-Earth object surveillance by NASA and partner agencies underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability of no 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026. Continuous tracking of potentially hazardous asteroids shows no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy threshold through year-end, with all documented 2026 flybys remaining far smaller and safely distant. Ongoing small-fireball detections have stayed well below impact levels, while programs like NEO Surveyor continue advancing detection capabilities without identifying near-term risks. Traders price in these verified monitoring results alongside the low statistical frequency of such events, though last-minute undiscovered objects remain a remote uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$179,084Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust near-Earth object surveillance by NASA and partner agencies underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability of no 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026. Continuous tracking of potentially hazardous asteroids shows no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy threshold through year-end, with all documented 2026 flybys remaining far smaller and safely distant. Ongoing small-fireball detections have stayed well below impact levels, while programs like NEO Surveyor continue advancing detection capabilities without identifying near-term risks. Traders price in these verified monitoring results alongside the low statistical frequency of such events, though last-minute undiscovered objects remain a remote uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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