NASA’s February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program drives the 97% market-implied odds against a crewed lunar landing this year. Artemis II completed its April flyby without surface operations, while Artemis III was repurposed as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit rendezvous test of SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin landers rather than a landing attempt. Persistent delays in Human Landing System development, SLS integration, and hardware qualification have shifted the first surface mission to early 2028 under Artemis IV. With only months remaining and no alternative commercial or international crewed landing vehicle on track, traders see virtually no pathway to success despite possible last-minute schedule compression or regulatory waivers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,942,868 Vol.
$1,942,868 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,942,868 Vol.
$1,942,868 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA’s February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program drives the 97% market-implied odds against a crewed lunar landing this year. Artemis II completed its April flyby without surface operations, while Artemis III was repurposed as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit rendezvous test of SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin landers rather than a landing attempt. Persistent delays in Human Landing System development, SLS integration, and hardware qualification have shifted the first surface mission to early 2028 under Artemis IV. With only months remaining and no alternative commercial or international crewed landing vehicle on track, traders see virtually no pathway to success despite possible last-minute schedule compression or regulatory waivers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,942,868Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA’s February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program drives the 97% market-implied odds against a crewed lunar landing this year. Artemis II completed its April flyby without surface operations, while Artemis III was repurposed as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit rendezvous test of SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin landers rather than a landing attempt. Persistent delays in Human Landing System development, SLS integration, and hardware qualification have shifted the first surface mission to early 2028 under Artemis IV. With only months remaining and no alternative commercial or international crewed landing vehicle on track, traders see virtually no pathway to success despite possible last-minute schedule compression or regulatory waivers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,942,868Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program drives the 97% market-implied odds against a crewed lunar landing this year. Artemis II completed its April flyby without surface operations, while Artemis III was repurposed as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit rendezvous test of SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin landers rather than a landing attempt. Persistent delays in Human Landing System development, SLS integration, and hardware qualification have shifted the first surface mission to early 2028 under Artemis IV. With only months remaining and no alternative commercial or international crewed landing vehicle on track, traders see virtually no pathway to success despite possible last-minute schedule compression or regulatory waivers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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