Recent NASA timeline revisions have shifted the first crewed lunar landing to early 2028 under Artemis IV, following the successful Artemis II flyby in April 2026 and reclassifying Artemis III as a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration. Traders see overwhelming barriers from ongoing SpaceX Starship Human Landing System development hurdles, including propulsion, docking, and landing demonstrations still required before crewed use. Official targets, supply chain realities, and historical schedule slips reinforce the near-certain "No" consensus at 97% implied probability. While an accelerated uncrewed test or policy intervention could theoretically compress timelines, substantial technical milestones remain unmet with only months left in 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,942,983 Vol.
$1,942,983 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,942,983 Vol.
$1,942,983 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent NASA timeline revisions have shifted the first crewed lunar landing to early 2028 under Artemis IV, following the successful Artemis II flyby in April 2026 and reclassifying Artemis III as a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration. Traders see overwhelming barriers from ongoing SpaceX Starship Human Landing System development hurdles, including propulsion, docking, and landing demonstrations still required before crewed use. Official targets, supply chain realities, and historical schedule slips reinforce the near-certain "No" consensus at 97% implied probability. While an accelerated uncrewed test or policy intervention could theoretically compress timelines, substantial technical milestones remain unmet with only months left in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,942,983Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent NASA timeline revisions have shifted the first crewed lunar landing to early 2028 under Artemis IV, following the successful Artemis II flyby in April 2026 and reclassifying Artemis III as a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration. Traders see overwhelming barriers from ongoing SpaceX Starship Human Landing System development hurdles, including propulsion, docking, and landing demonstrations still required before crewed use. Official targets, supply chain realities, and historical schedule slips reinforce the near-certain "No" consensus at 97% implied probability. While an accelerated uncrewed test or policy intervention could theoretically compress timelines, substantial technical milestones remain unmet with only months left in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,942,983Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent NASA timeline revisions have shifted the first crewed lunar landing to early 2028 under Artemis IV, following the successful Artemis II flyby in April 2026 and reclassifying Artemis III as a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration. Traders see overwhelming barriers from ongoing SpaceX Starship Human Landing System development hurdles, including propulsion, docking, and landing demonstrations still required before crewed use. Official targets, supply chain realities, and historical schedule slips reinforce the near-certain "No" consensus at 97% implied probability. While an accelerated uncrewed test or policy intervention could theoretically compress timelines, substantial technical milestones remain unmet with only months left in 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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