NASA's Artemis program restructuring has shifted the first crewed lunar landing from an earlier Artemis III target to Artemis IV in early 2028, following the successful April 2026 Artemis II crewed flyby that tested Orion systems without any surface operations. Persistent delays in Starship lunar lander development, in-space refueling demonstrations, SLS integration, and spacesuit qualification have eliminated any near-term path to a 2026 landing. With only six months remaining in the year and no commercial crewed lunar capability approaching flight readiness, traders assign overwhelming probability to "No." While unexpected acceleration in Starship orbital refueling tests or policy-driven schedule compression could theoretically compress timelines, historical slippage patterns and hardware maturity gaps make such reversals highly improbable before year-end.