Strong trader consensus favoring no new pandemic in 2026 stems from ongoing official surveillance showing no pathogen has achieved sustained human-to-human transmission capable of exponential growth. Contained zoonotic events, including Bundibugyo Ebola outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a limited Andes hantavirus cluster linked to cruise ship travel, and animal-circulating H5N1 avian influenza without efficient respiratory spread, remain below pandemic thresholds. Enhanced post-COVID systems such as wastewater monitoring and the 2025 Pandemic Agreement enable rapid detection and response. Market-implied odds could shift if antigenic changes in influenza or coronaviruses enable sustained transmission, or if undetected spillovers from pathogens like Nipah occur before diagnostics scale fully.