No confirmed bolide with 5 kilotons or greater impact energy has occurred in the first half of 2026, and NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies along with ESA monitoring report no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing that yield. Small meteoroids enter the atmosphere regularly, yet those generating airbursts at or above the 5 kt threshold remain infrequent based on historical records and current orbital surveys. Recent close approaches, including several house-sized asteroids passing safely in May and June, have shown no impact risk after refined tracking. This absence of events and predicted threats through mid-year underpins trader consensus favoring resolution to No by year-end. Continued CNEOS fireball data releases and ongoing NEO surveys will provide the key updates for the remainder of 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$305,718 Vol.
$305,718 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$305,718 Vol.
$305,718 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No confirmed bolide with 5 kilotons or greater impact energy has occurred in the first half of 2026, and NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies along with ESA monitoring report no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing that yield. Small meteoroids enter the atmosphere regularly, yet those generating airbursts at or above the 5 kt threshold remain infrequent based on historical records and current orbital surveys. Recent close approaches, including several house-sized asteroids passing safely in May and June, have shown no impact risk after refined tracking. This absence of events and predicted threats through mid-year underpins trader consensus favoring resolution to No by year-end. Continued CNEOS fireball data releases and ongoing NEO surveys will provide the key updates for the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$305,718Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No confirmed bolide with 5 kilotons or greater impact energy has occurred in the first half of 2026, and NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies along with ESA monitoring report no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing that yield. Small meteoroids enter the atmosphere regularly, yet those generating airbursts at or above the 5 kt threshold remain infrequent based on historical records and current orbital surveys. Recent close approaches, including several house-sized asteroids passing safely in May and June, have shown no impact risk after refined tracking. This absence of events and predicted threats through mid-year underpins trader consensus favoring resolution to No by year-end. Continued CNEOS fireball data releases and ongoing NEO surveys will provide the key updates for the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$305,718Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No confirmed bolide with 5 kilotons or greater impact energy has occurred in the first half of 2026, and NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies along with ESA monitoring report no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing that yield. Small meteoroids enter the atmosphere regularly, yet those generating airbursts at or above the 5 kt threshold remain infrequent based on historical records and current orbital surveys. Recent close approaches, including several house-sized asteroids passing safely in May and June, have shown no impact risk after refined tracking. This absence of events and predicted threats through mid-year underpins trader consensus favoring resolution to No by year-end. Continued CNEOS fireball data releases and ongoing NEO surveys will provide the key updates for the remainder of 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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