Historical frequency data from CNEOS fireball observations indicate 5 kt airbursts occur roughly every 4–5 years on average, driven by ~7 m near-Earth objects that typically explode at 30–40 km altitude. With no cataloged asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026 and all recent close approaches (such as 2026 JH2) confirmed as safe misses by JPL and ESA monitoring, trader consensus favors “No” at 72.5% implied probability. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small-object population without altering near-term risk assessments, while the upcoming NEO Surveyor launch later in 2026 may improve future detection but will not resolve events within the calendar year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$306,607 Vol.
$306,607 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$306,607 Vol.
$306,607 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Historical frequency data from CNEOS fireball observations indicate 5 kt airbursts occur roughly every 4–5 years on average, driven by ~7 m near-Earth objects that typically explode at 30–40 km altitude. With no cataloged asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026 and all recent close approaches (such as 2026 JH2) confirmed as safe misses by JPL and ESA monitoring, trader consensus favors “No” at 72.5% implied probability. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small-object population without altering near-term risk assessments, while the upcoming NEO Surveyor launch later in 2026 may improve future detection but will not resolve events within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$306,607Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Historical frequency data from CNEOS fireball observations indicate 5 kt airbursts occur roughly every 4–5 years on average, driven by ~7 m near-Earth objects that typically explode at 30–40 km altitude. With no cataloged asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026 and all recent close approaches (such as 2026 JH2) confirmed as safe misses by JPL and ESA monitoring, trader consensus favors “No” at 72.5% implied probability. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small-object population without altering near-term risk assessments, while the upcoming NEO Surveyor launch later in 2026 may improve future detection but will not resolve events within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$306,607Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Historical frequency data from CNEOS fireball observations indicate 5 kt airbursts occur roughly every 4–5 years on average, driven by ~7 m near-Earth objects that typically explode at 30–40 km altitude. With no cataloged asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026 and all recent close approaches (such as 2026 JH2) confirmed as safe misses by JPL and ESA monitoring, trader consensus favors “No” at 72.5% implied probability. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small-object population without altering near-term risk assessments, while the upcoming NEO Surveyor launch later in 2026 may improve future detection but will not resolve events within the calendar year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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