**No 5-kiloton-or-greater bolide is currently favored at 71% market-implied probability** because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry and Scout systems report no known meter-scale objects on collision trajectories for 2026, while close-approach lists show all tracked NEOs passing safely at lunar distances or greater. Historical NASA fireball records indicate roughly 0.8 events per year since 1988, yet many occur undetected over oceans; the absence of any qualifying airburst through mid-June 2026, combined with refined orbits eliminating earlier low-probability candidates, supports trader consensus that the year is more likely to remain below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing infrared surveys and ground-based detections continue to reduce the pool of undetected impactors, keeping odds anchored on “No” absent a sudden, unforecasted detection.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$305,933 Vol.
$305,933 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$305,933 Vol.
$305,933 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No 5-kiloton-or-greater bolide is currently favored at 71% market-implied probability** because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry and Scout systems report no known meter-scale objects on collision trajectories for 2026, while close-approach lists show all tracked NEOs passing safely at lunar distances or greater.
Historical NASA fireball records indicate roughly 0.8 events per year since 1988, yet many occur undetected over oceans; the absence of any qualifying airburst through mid-June 2026, combined with refined orbits eliminating earlier low-probability candidates, supports trader consensus that the year is more likely to remain below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing infrared surveys and ground-based detections continue to reduce the pool of undetected impactors, keeping odds anchored on “No” absent a sudden, unforecasted detection.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$305,933Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No 5-kiloton-or-greater bolide is currently favored at 71% market-implied probability** because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry and Scout systems report no known meter-scale objects on collision trajectories for 2026, while close-approach lists show all tracked NEOs passing safely at lunar distances or greater.
Historical NASA fireball records indicate roughly 0.8 events per year since 1988, yet many occur undetected over oceans; the absence of any qualifying airburst through mid-June 2026, combined with refined orbits eliminating earlier low-probability candidates, supports trader consensus that the year is more likely to remain below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing infrared surveys and ground-based detections continue to reduce the pool of undetected impactors, keeping odds anchored on “No” absent a sudden, unforecasted detection.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$305,933Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No 5-kiloton-or-greater bolide is currently favored at 71% market-implied probability** because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry and Scout systems report no known meter-scale objects on collision trajectories for 2026, while close-approach lists show all tracked NEOs passing safely at lunar distances or greater. Historical NASA fireball records indicate roughly 0.8 events per year since 1988, yet many occur undetected over oceans; the absence of any qualifying airburst through mid-June 2026, combined with refined orbits eliminating earlier low-probability candidates, supports trader consensus that the year is more likely to remain below the 5 kt threshold. Ongoing infrared surveys and ground-based detections continue to reduce the pool of undetected impactors, keeping odds anchored on “No” absent a sudden, unforecasted detection.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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