Ongoing NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects reveals no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 5-kiloton impact energy during 2026. Sentry and Scout systems confirm zero significant impact risk through at least the next century, consistent with historical rates where objects in the relevant size range (roughly 5–15 meters) strike Earth only sporadically and without prior detection. Recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2, passed harmlessly at distances exceeding lunar orbit with zero modeled probability of atmospheric entry at damaging energies. This absence of identified threats underpins the market-implied 71.5% probability on “No,” while acknowledging that undetected small objects could still produce surprise events before year-end.