No at 69.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5-kiloton bolides, which NASA data indicate occur far less often than once per year on average, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies showing no known objects on collision trajectories for 2026. While Q1 2026 saw a statistically elevated number of reported fireballs, none approached the 5 kt energy threshold equivalent to objects roughly 5–10 meters across. Ongoing surveys confirm that impacts of this scale remain random and infrequent, with most small near-Earth objects burning up harmlessly or passing at safe distances. Traders weigh the remaining months of 2026 against these baseline rates and the absence of any identified risk from current catalogs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$305,880 Vol.
$305,880 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$305,880 Vol.
$305,880 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 69.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5-kiloton bolides, which NASA data indicate occur far less often than once per year on average, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies showing no known objects on collision trajectories for 2026. While Q1 2026 saw a statistically elevated number of reported fireballs, none approached the 5 kt energy threshold equivalent to objects roughly 5–10 meters across. Ongoing surveys confirm that impacts of this scale remain random and infrequent, with most small near-Earth objects burning up harmlessly or passing at safe distances. Traders weigh the remaining months of 2026 against these baseline rates and the absence of any identified risk from current catalogs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$305,880Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 69.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5-kiloton bolides, which NASA data indicate occur far less often than once per year on average, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies showing no known objects on collision trajectories for 2026. While Q1 2026 saw a statistically elevated number of reported fireballs, none approached the 5 kt energy threshold equivalent to objects roughly 5–10 meters across. Ongoing surveys confirm that impacts of this scale remain random and infrequent, with most small near-Earth objects burning up harmlessly or passing at safe distances. Traders weigh the remaining months of 2026 against these baseline rates and the absence of any identified risk from current catalogs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$305,880Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 69.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5-kiloton bolides, which NASA data indicate occur far less often than once per year on average, combined with continuous near-Earth object monitoring by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies showing no known objects on collision trajectories for 2026. While Q1 2026 saw a statistically elevated number of reported fireballs, none approached the 5 kt energy threshold equivalent to objects roughly 5–10 meters across. Ongoing surveys confirm that impacts of this scale remain random and infrequent, with most small near-Earth objects burning up harmlessly or passing at safe distances. Traders weigh the remaining months of 2026 against these baseline rates and the absence of any identified risk from current catalogs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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