The low historical frequency of meter-scale near-Earth objects capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst anchors the market-implied odds favoring no such event in 2026. Objects roughly 7 meters across release about 5 kt of energy on average once every four to six years, based on NASA fireball records since the 1980s, with many impacts occurring undetected over oceans. Current orbital monitoring by NASA and ESA shows no known threats of sufficient size on collision trajectories this year, while recent small bolides like 2026 JN4 released far less energy. Ongoing surveys and model refinements of undetected objects remain the main variables that could alter consensus before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$305,956 Vol.
$305,956 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$305,956 Vol.
$305,956 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The low historical frequency of meter-scale near-Earth objects capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst anchors the market-implied odds favoring no such event in 2026. Objects roughly 7 meters across release about 5 kt of energy on average once every four to six years, based on NASA fireball records since the 1980s, with many impacts occurring undetected over oceans. Current orbital monitoring by NASA and ESA shows no known threats of sufficient size on collision trajectories this year, while recent small bolides like 2026 JN4 released far less energy. Ongoing surveys and model refinements of undetected objects remain the main variables that could alter consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$305,956Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The low historical frequency of meter-scale near-Earth objects capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst anchors the market-implied odds favoring no such event in 2026. Objects roughly 7 meters across release about 5 kt of energy on average once every four to six years, based on NASA fireball records since the 1980s, with many impacts occurring undetected over oceans. Current orbital monitoring by NASA and ESA shows no known threats of sufficient size on collision trajectories this year, while recent small bolides like 2026 JN4 released far less energy. Ongoing surveys and model refinements of undetected objects remain the main variables that could alter consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$305,956Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The low historical frequency of meter-scale near-Earth objects capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst anchors the market-implied odds favoring no such event in 2026. Objects roughly 7 meters across release about 5 kt of energy on average once every four to six years, based on NASA fireball records since the 1980s, with many impacts occurring undetected over oceans. Current orbital monitoring by NASA and ESA shows no known threats of sufficient size on collision trajectories this year, while recent small bolides like 2026 JN4 released far less energy. Ongoing surveys and model refinements of undetected objects remain the main variables that could alter consensus before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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