Yassamin Ansari, the Democratic incumbent in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district, holds a commanding position heading into the 2026 cycle. The seat’s D+22 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflects a consistent structural advantage that has produced wide Democratic margins in recent cycles. Traders have priced this reality into the current 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee, reflecting the absence of any credible Republican challenger and the district’s reliable turnout patterns. The July 21 primary and November 3 general election remain the primary scheduled events that could still influence positioning, though only an unanticipated shift in national conditions or a late primary surprise would realistically alter the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAZ-03 Wahlsieger
AZ-03 Wahlsieger
$14,714 Vol.
$14,714 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$14,714 Vol.
$14,714 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$9,121 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$5,594 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yassamin Ansari, the Democratic incumbent in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district, holds a commanding position heading into the 2026 cycle. The seat’s D+22 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflects a consistent structural advantage that has produced wide Democratic margins in recent cycles. Traders have priced this reality into the current 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee, reflecting the absence of any credible Republican challenger and the district’s reliable turnout patterns. The July 21 primary and November 3 general election remain the primary scheduled events that could still influence positioning, though only an unanticipated shift in national conditions or a late primary surprise would realistically alter the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$14,714Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yassamin Ansari, the Democratic incumbent in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district, holds a commanding position heading into the 2026 cycle. The seat’s D+22 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflects a consistent structural advantage that has produced wide Democratic margins in recent cycles. Traders have priced this reality into the current 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee, reflecting the absence of any credible Republican challenger and the district’s reliable turnout patterns. The July 21 primary and November 3 general election remain the primary scheduled events that could still influence positioning, though only an unanticipated shift in national conditions or a late primary surprise would realistically alter the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$14,714Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Yassamin Ansari, the Democratic incumbent in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district, holds a commanding position heading into the 2026 cycle. The seat’s D+22 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflects a consistent structural advantage that has produced wide Democratic margins in recent cycles. Traders have priced this reality into the current 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee, reflecting the absence of any credible Republican challenger and the district’s reliable turnout patterns. The July 21 primary and November 3 general election remain the primary scheduled events that could still influence positioning, though only an unanticipated shift in national conditions or a late primary surprise would realistically alter the existing consensus reflected in market pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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