**Incumbent Republican Abraham Hamadeh holds Arizona’s 8th congressional district, a Phoenix-area seat with an R+8 Partisan Voter Index, after winning the 2024 general election by roughly 13 points.** Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia, who won her July 2026 primary, is the general-election challenger. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s structural GOP lean in western and northern Maricopa County suburbs. Trader pricing on margin buckets (Republican 0–3 percent through 21 percent+, plus Democrat options) clusters tightly around 36–38 percent each, with Person A, Person B, and Other outcomes near 50 percent. This dispersion stems from the November 3, 2026 election still being more than two months away, the absence of recent public district-specific polling, and uncertainty over how national midterm conditions, suburban turnout patterns, and relative fundraising will shape the final spread. Historical base rates in R+8 districts favor comfortable Republican margins, yet variable voter enthusiasm and suburban precinct shifts keep the precise victory range contested. Key catalysts that could produce separation include fresh polling averages, candidate debate performances, late-cycle advertising or small-donor surges, and any national political environment changes that alter independent or unaffiliated turnout in the district’s growing suburbs. Resolution occurs once certified election results confirm the exact margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRepublikaner 6–9 % 40%
Demokrat 3%+ 40%
Republikaner 18-21% 36%
Republikaner 9-12% 36%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner 21 %+
35%
Republikaner 18-21%
36%
Republikaner 15-18%
36%
Republikaner 12-15%
34%
Republikaner 9-12%
36%
Republikaner 6–9 %
40%
Republikaner 3-6%
25%
Republikaner 0-3%
34%
Demokrat 0-3%
35%
Demokrat 3%+
40%
Republikaner 6–9 % 40%
Demokrat 3%+ 40%
Republikaner 18-21% 36%
Republikaner 9-12% 36%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner 21 %+
$19 Vol.
35%
Republikaner 18-21%
$19 Vol.
36%
Republikaner 15-18%
$19 Vol.
36%
Republikaner 12-15%
$19 Vol.
34%
Republikaner 9-12%
$19 Vol.
36%
Republikaner 6–9 %
$19 Vol.
40%
Republikaner 3-6%
$19 Vol.
25%
Republikaner 0-3%
$19 Vol.
34%
Demokrat 0-3%
$19 Vol.
35%
Demokrat 3%+
$19 Vol.
40%
The 2026 AZ-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Republican Abraham Hamadeh holds Arizona’s 8th congressional district, a Phoenix-area seat with an R+8 Partisan Voter Index, after winning the 2024 general election by roughly 13 points.** Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia, who won her July 2026 primary, is the general-election challenger. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s structural GOP lean in western and northern Maricopa County suburbs.
Trader pricing on margin buckets (Republican 0–3 percent through 21 percent+, plus Democrat options) clusters tightly around 36–38 percent each, with Person A, Person B, and Other outcomes near 50 percent. This dispersion stems from the November 3, 2026 election still being more than two months away, the absence of recent public district-specific polling, and uncertainty over how national midterm conditions, suburban turnout patterns, and relative fundraising will shape the final spread. Historical base rates in R+8 districts favor comfortable Republican margins, yet variable voter enthusiasm and suburban precinct shifts keep the precise victory range contested.
Key catalysts that could produce separation include fresh polling averages, candidate debate performances, late-cycle advertising or small-donor surges, and any national political environment changes that alter independent or unaffiliated turnout in the district’s growing suburbs. Resolution occurs once certified election results confirm the exact margin.
The 2026 AZ-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ET
Volumen
$190Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AZ-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Republican Abraham Hamadeh holds Arizona’s 8th congressional district, a Phoenix-area seat with an R+8 Partisan Voter Index, after winning the 2024 general election by roughly 13 points.** Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia, who won her July 2026 primary, is the general-election challenger. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s structural GOP lean in western and northern Maricopa County suburbs.
Trader pricing on margin buckets (Republican 0–3 percent through 21 percent+, plus Democrat options) clusters tightly around 36–38 percent each, with Person A, Person B, and Other outcomes near 50 percent. This dispersion stems from the November 3, 2026 election still being more than two months away, the absence of recent public district-specific polling, and uncertainty over how national midterm conditions, suburban turnout patterns, and relative fundraising will shape the final spread. Historical base rates in R+8 districts favor comfortable Republican margins, yet variable voter enthusiasm and suburban precinct shifts keep the precise victory range contested.
Key catalysts that could produce separation include fresh polling averages, candidate debate performances, late-cycle advertising or small-donor surges, and any national political environment changes that alter independent or unaffiliated turnout in the district’s growing suburbs. Resolution occurs once certified election results confirm the exact margin.
The 2026 AZ-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$190Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Republican Abraham Hamadeh holds Arizona’s 8th congressional district, a Phoenix-area seat with an R+8 Partisan Voter Index, after winning the 2024 general election by roughly 13 points.** Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia, who won her July 2026 primary, is the general-election challenger. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s structural GOP lean in western and northern Maricopa County suburbs. Trader pricing on margin buckets (Republican 0–3 percent through 21 percent+, plus Democrat options) clusters tightly around 36–38 percent each, with Person A, Person B, and Other outcomes near 50 percent. This dispersion stems from the November 3, 2026 election still being more than two months away, the absence of recent public district-specific polling, and uncertainty over how national midterm conditions, suburban turnout patterns, and relative fundraising will shape the final spread. Historical base rates in R+8 districts favor comfortable Republican margins, yet variable voter enthusiasm and suburban precinct shifts keep the precise victory range contested. Key catalysts that could produce separation include fresh polling averages, candidate debate performances, late-cycle advertising or small-donor surges, and any national political environment changes that alter independent or unaffiliated turnout in the district’s growing suburbs. Resolution occurs once certified election results confirm the exact margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk AZ-07 2026 mit 20 %-25 % Vorsprung gewinnen?
39%
Ja
Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Wahlkreis AZ-09 im Jahr 2026 mit 10 %-15 % Vorsprung gewinnen?
32%
Ja
Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus 2026 im Bezirk AZ-06 mit 9%-12% Vorsprung gewinnen?
40%
Ja
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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