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icon for Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory
Politik·US-Wahl

Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory

icon for Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory
Politik·US-Wahl

Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory

Markey 25–30 % 32%

Moulton <5% 29%

Markey 30–35 % 25%

Markey 5–10 % 24%

Polymarket
NEU

Markey 25–30 % 32%

Moulton <5% 29%

Markey 30–35 % 25%

Markey 5–10 % 24%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Markey 40 %+

Markey 40 %+

$62 Vol.

5%

icon for Markey 35–40 %

Markey 35–40 %

$16 Vol.

24%

icon for Markey 30–35 %

Markey 30–35 %

$96 Vol.

25%

icon for Markey 25–30 %

Markey 25–30 %

$33 Vol.

21%

icon for Markey 20–25 %

Markey 20–25 %

$78 Vol.

26%

icon for Markey 15–20%

Markey 15–20%

$68 Vol.

38%

icon for Markey 10–15 %

Markey 10–15 %

$16 Vol.

22%

icon for Markey 5–10 %

Markey 5–10 %

$16 Vol.

24%

icon for Markey <5%

Markey <5%

$16 Vol.

18%

icon for Moulton <5%

Moulton <5%

$16 Vol.

29%

icon for Moulton 5%+

Moulton 5%+

$101 Vol.

9%

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling has solidified Ed Markey's position as the clear frontrunner in the September 1 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary against Seth Moulton, with late August surveys from Suffolk University and UMass Amherst showing the incumbent ahead by 14 to 28 points among likely Democratic voters. This shift from earlier tighter contests has elevated probabilities for Markey victory margins in the 15-40 point range while sustaining high pricing on "Other," reflecting uncertainty over the precise spread or low-probability Moulton scenarios. Markey's advantages stem from strong progressive and grassroots backing, higher issue trust ratings, and convention delegate strength, whereas Moulton's emphasis on generational change and age has failed to close the gap in recent weeks. The primary's proximity limits further major catalysts before resolution.

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$518
Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling has solidified Ed Markey's position as the clear frontrunner in the September 1 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary against Seth Moulton, with late August surveys from Suffolk University and UMass Amherst showing the incumbent ahead by 14 to 28 points among likely Democratic voters. This shift from earlier tighter contests has elevated probabilities for Markey victory margins in the 15-40 point range while sustaining high pricing on "Other," reflecting uncertainty over the precise spread or low-probability Moulton scenarios. Markey's advantages stem from strong progressive and grassroots backing, higher issue trust ratings, and convention delegate strength, whereas Moulton's emphasis on generational change and age has failed to close the gap in recent weeks. The primary's proximity limits further major catalysts before resolution.

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$518
Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Verwandte

icon for Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Senatswahl 2026 in Massachusetts mit 30%-35% Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Senatswahl 2026 in Massachusetts mit 30%-35% Vorsprung gewinnen?

20%
Ja
icon for Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl in Massachusetts 2026 mit 30%-35% Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl in Massachusetts 2026 mit 30%-35% Vorsprung gewinnen?

22%
Ja
icon for Wird Mary Peltola die Vorwahl zum Senat in Alaska mit 6–9 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird Mary Peltola die Vorwahl zum Senat in Alaska mit 6–9 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

60%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 11 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Markey 15–20%" mit 38%, gefolgt von „Moulton <5%" mit 28%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 38¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 20, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory" ist „Markey 15–20%" mit 38%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Moulton <5%" mit 28%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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