Recent polls from Alaska Survey Research show Mary Peltola leading incumbent Dan Sullivan by five to seven points in head-to-head and ranked-choice voting simulations, reflecting her strong name recognition after winning the state's at-large House seat in 2022 under the same voting system. Peltola's January 2026 campaign launch and record first-quarter fundraising have positioned her as a credible challenger in this jungle primary scheduled for August 18, 2026, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency and established party support ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus on the market assigns Peltola a 60 percent implied probability, consistent with these early surveys, though the race remains open to shifts from campaign spending, national conditions, and turnout patterns over the coming months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMary Peltola 60%
Dan Sullivan 40%
Ann Diener <1%
Richard Grayson <1%
$327,951 Vol.
$327,951 Vol.

Mary Peltola
60%

Dan Sullivan
40%

Ann Diener
<1%

Richard Grayson
<1%

Dustin Darden
<1%
Mary Peltola 60%
Dan Sullivan 40%
Ann Diener <1%
Richard Grayson <1%
$327,951 Vol.
$327,951 Vol.

Mary Peltola
60%

Dan Sullivan
40%

Ann Diener
<1%

Richard Grayson
<1%

Dustin Darden
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Alaska Survey Research show Mary Peltola leading incumbent Dan Sullivan by five to seven points in head-to-head and ranked-choice voting simulations, reflecting her strong name recognition after winning the state's at-large House seat in 2022 under the same voting system. Peltola's January 2026 campaign launch and record first-quarter fundraising have positioned her as a credible challenger in this jungle primary scheduled for August 18, 2026, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency and established party support ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus on the market assigns Peltola a 60 percent implied probability, consistent with these early surveys, though the race remains open to shifts from campaign spending, national conditions, and turnout patterns over the coming months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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