Redistricting after the 2020 census and subsequent map adjustments merged portions of two Republican-held seats, placing longtime incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim in the same CA-40 contest for the November 2026 general election. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Calvert secured the highest share of votes at roughly 35 percent while Kim placed second near 21 percent, with Democratic candidates splitting the remainder and failing to advance. This outcome, driven by stronger Republican consolidation behind Calvert in a district rated safely red by forecasters, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner according to trader consensus. Young Kim's lower implied probability reflects her weaker primary performance and the challenges of consolidating support in the runoff-style general. No major late developments have altered the race trajectory since the primary.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Ken Calvert
68%
Young Kim
33%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Ken Calvert
$387 Vol.
68%
Young Kim
$104 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting after the 2020 census and subsequent map adjustments merged portions of two Republican-held seats, placing longtime incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim in the same CA-40 contest for the November 2026 general election. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Calvert secured the highest share of votes at roughly 35 percent while Kim placed second near 21 percent, with Democratic candidates splitting the remainder and failing to advance. This outcome, driven by stronger Republican consolidation behind Calvert in a district rated safely red by forecasters, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner according to trader consensus. Young Kim's lower implied probability reflects her weaker primary performance and the challenges of consolidating support in the runoff-style general. No major late developments have altered the race trajectory since the primary.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ET
Volumen
$491Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting after the 2020 census and subsequent map adjustments merged portions of two Republican-held seats, placing longtime incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim in the same CA-40 contest for the November 2026 general election. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Calvert secured the highest share of votes at roughly 35 percent while Kim placed second near 21 percent, with Democratic candidates splitting the remainder and failing to advance. This outcome, driven by stronger Republican consolidation behind Calvert in a district rated safely red by forecasters, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner according to trader consensus. Young Kim's lower implied probability reflects her weaker primary performance and the challenges of consolidating support in the runoff-style general. No major late developments have altered the race trajectory since the primary.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$491Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Redistricting after the 2020 census and subsequent map adjustments merged portions of two Republican-held seats, placing longtime incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim in the same CA-40 contest for the November 2026 general election. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Calvert secured the highest share of votes at roughly 35 percent while Kim placed second near 21 percent, with Democratic candidates splitting the remainder and failing to advance. This outcome, driven by stronger Republican consolidation behind Calvert in a district rated safely red by forecasters, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner according to trader consensus. Young Kim's lower implied probability reflects her weaker primary performance and the challenges of consolidating support in the runoff-style general. No major late developments have altered the race trajectory since the primary.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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