Democrats hold an 80.5% implied probability of winning the Wisconsin State Senate in the November 3, 2026 election, compared with 16.5% for Republicans, reflecting trader assessment of structural advantages from new legislative maps adopted after the 2023 Clarke ruling ended prior Republican-favoring districts. Republicans currently hold an 18-15 majority, but 17 seats are contested this cycle, including multiple open Republican seats in competitive areas after retirements by figures such as Devin LeMahieu and others. Recent Marquette polling shows a Democratic generic ballot edge, aided by a midterm environment under Republican presidential leadership and unified Democratic statewide ticket momentum following the August gubernatorial primary. Key battlegrounds center on districts like the 5th and 21st, where Democratic challengers target flips needed for majority control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
3.25 % verdienen
Demokratische Partei
81%
Republikanische Partei
17%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
3.25 % verdienen
Demokratische Partei
$627 Vol.
81%
Republikanische Partei
$327 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Wisconsin State Senate in the 2026 Wisconsin midterm election.
A party wins control of the Wisconsin Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no President of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Wisconsin State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats hold an 80.5% implied probability of winning the Wisconsin State Senate in the November 3, 2026 election, compared with 16.5% for Republicans, reflecting trader assessment of structural advantages from new legislative maps adopted after the 2023 Clarke ruling ended prior Republican-favoring districts. Republicans currently hold an 18-15 majority, but 17 seats are contested this cycle, including multiple open Republican seats in competitive areas after retirements by figures such as Devin LeMahieu and others. Recent Marquette polling shows a Democratic generic ballot edge, aided by a midterm environment under Republican presidential leadership and unified Democratic statewide ticket momentum following the August gubernatorial primary. Key battlegrounds center on districts like the 5th and 21st, where Democratic challengers target flips needed for majority control.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Wisconsin State Senate in the 2026 Wisconsin midterm election.
A party wins control of the Wisconsin Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no President of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Wisconsin State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A party wins control of the Wisconsin Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no President of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Wisconsin State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 10, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volumen
$954Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 10, 2026, 2:20 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Wisconsin State Senate in the 2026 Wisconsin midterm election.
A party wins control of the Wisconsin Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no President of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Wisconsin State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats hold an 80.5% implied probability of winning the Wisconsin State Senate in the November 3, 2026 election, compared with 16.5% for Republicans, reflecting trader assessment of structural advantages from new legislative maps adopted after the 2023 Clarke ruling ended prior Republican-favoring districts. Republicans currently hold an 18-15 majority, but 17 seats are contested this cycle, including multiple open Republican seats in competitive areas after retirements by figures such as Devin LeMahieu and others. Recent Marquette polling shows a Democratic generic ballot edge, aided by a midterm environment under Republican presidential leadership and unified Democratic statewide ticket momentum following the August gubernatorial primary. Key battlegrounds center on districts like the 5th and 21st, where Democratic challengers target flips needed for majority control.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Wisconsin State Senate in the 2026 Wisconsin midterm election.
A party wins control of the Wisconsin Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no President of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Wisconsin State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A party wins control of the Wisconsin Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no President of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Wisconsin State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$954Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 10, 2026, 2:20 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Democrats hold an 80.5% implied probability of winning the Wisconsin State Senate in the November 3, 2026 election, compared with 16.5% for Republicans, reflecting trader assessment of structural advantages from new legislative maps adopted after the 2023 Clarke ruling ended prior Republican-favoring districts. Republicans currently hold an 18-15 majority, but 17 seats are contested this cycle, including multiple open Republican seats in competitive areas after retirements by figures such as Devin LeMahieu and others. Recent Marquette polling shows a Democratic generic ballot edge, aided by a midterm environment under Republican presidential leadership and unified Democratic statewide ticket momentum following the August gubernatorial primary. Key battlegrounds center on districts like the 5th and 21st, where Democratic challengers target flips needed for majority control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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