In the 2026 Senate cycle, trader focus centers on states with narrow historical margins, vulnerable incumbents, and shifting voter coalitions in battleground territories. Recent primary outcomes have clarified nominee fields in several competitive contests, with early polling averages highlighting tight positioning in states featuring divided electorates and high turnout potential. Fundraising reports and candidate recruitment patterns further shape assessments of path-to-victory scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include party conventions, candidate debates, and final voter registration deadlines that could influence turnout models. Historical base rates for Senate races show that national political conditions and late-cycle events often determine whether contests stay within narrow margins through election night.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNEU
$13,802 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Ohio (Sonderwahl)
89%
Michigan
80%
Texas
73%
Iowa
73%
Alaska
67%
Maine
65%
New Hampshire
42%
Nebraska
42%
Georgia
32%
Minnesota
32%
Florida (Sonderfall)
28%
North Carolina
25%
Montana
19%
New Mexico
11%
Virginia
7%
Colorado
4%
$13,802 Vol.
Ohio (Sonderwahl)
$498 Vol.
89%
Michigan
$409 Vol.
80%
Texas
$196 Vol.
73%
Iowa
$746 Vol.
73%
Alaska
$354 Vol.
67%
Maine
$188 Vol.
65%
New Hampshire
$781 Vol.
42%
Nebraska
$1,690 Vol.
42%
Georgia
$163 Vol.
32%
Minnesota
$2,765 Vol.
32%
Florida (Sonderfall)
$972 Vol.
28%
North Carolina
$1,517 Vol.
25%
Montana
$0 Vol.
19%
New Mexico
$1,144 Vol.
11%
Virginia
$857 Vol.
7%
Colorado
$1,522 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the 2026 Senate cycle, trader focus centers on states with narrow historical margins, vulnerable incumbents, and shifting voter coalitions in battleground territories. Recent primary outcomes have clarified nominee fields in several competitive contests, with early polling averages highlighting tight positioning in states featuring divided electorates and high turnout potential. Fundraising reports and candidate recruitment patterns further shape assessments of path-to-victory scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include party conventions, candidate debates, and final voter registration deadlines that could influence turnout models. Historical base rates for Senate races show that national political conditions and late-cycle events often determine whether contests stay within narrow margins through election night.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$13,802Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the 2026 Senate cycle, trader focus centers on states with narrow historical margins, vulnerable incumbents, and shifting voter coalitions in battleground territories. Recent primary outcomes have clarified nominee fields in several competitive contests, with early polling averages highlighting tight positioning in states featuring divided electorates and high turnout potential. Fundraising reports and candidate recruitment patterns further shape assessments of path-to-victory scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include party conventions, candidate debates, and final voter registration deadlines that could influence turnout models. Historical base rates for Senate races show that national political conditions and late-cycle events often determine whether contests stay within narrow margins through election night.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$13,802Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the 2026 Senate cycle, trader focus centers on states with narrow historical margins, vulnerable incumbents, and shifting voter coalitions in battleground territories. Recent primary outcomes have clarified nominee fields in several competitive contests, with early polling averages highlighting tight positioning in states featuring divided electorates and high turnout potential. Fundraising reports and candidate recruitment patterns further shape assessments of path-to-victory scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include party conventions, candidate debates, and final voter registration deadlines that could influence turnout models. Historical base rates for Senate races show that national political conditions and late-cycle events often determine whether contests stay within narrow margins through election night.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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