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Politik·Senat

Closest Senate Race?

icon for Closest Senate Race?
Politik·Senat

Closest Senate Race?

Texas 15%

Iowa 14.4%

Michigan 10.7%

Alaska 11%

Polymarket

$39,746 Vol.

Texas 15%

Iowa 14.4%

Michigan 10.7%

Alaska 11%

Polymarket

$39,746 Vol.

Texas

$1,876 Vol.

15%

Iowa

$3,287 Vol.

14%

Michigan

$2,998 Vol.

11%

Alaska

$7,695 Vol.

11%

Nebraska

$1,564 Vol.

10%

Ohio (Special)

$8,979 Vol.

9%

Maine

$1,398 Vol.

9%

North Carolina

$871 Vol.

5%

New Hampshire

$788 Vol.

5%

Virginia

$5,073 Vol.

3%

Florida (Special)

$253 Vol.

3%

Georgia

$824 Vol.

2%

New Mexico

$160 Vol.

2%

Minnesota

$1,494 Vol.

1%

Montana

$1,383 Vol.

1%

Colorado

$1,103 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and Nebraska lead Polymarket's closest Senate race market because recent polling averages show margins of 1–3 points in each, driven by open seats, strong challengers, and a national environment that has narrowed historical partisan gaps. In Texas, Ken Paxton faces James Talarico in a race rated toss-up by multiple forecasters after Democratic gains in fundraising and turnout metrics. Iowa's open seat pits Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek amid affordability concerns that have kept surveys nearly even. Michigan's open contest between Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed, plus Alaska's Dan Sullivan versus Mary Peltola and Nebraska's dynamics, similarly reflect tight fundamentals and limited separation in current data. Late-cycle events such as debates, final ad waves, turnout shifts, or economic indicators could widen or reorder these probabilities before November 3.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$39,746
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and Nebraska lead Polymarket's closest Senate race market because recent polling averages show margins of 1–3 points in each, driven by open seats, strong challengers, and a national environment that has narrowed historical partisan gaps. In Texas, Ken Paxton faces James Talarico in a race rated toss-up by multiple forecasters after Democratic gains in fundraising and turnout metrics. Iowa's open seat pits Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek amid affordability concerns that have kept surveys nearly even. Michigan's open contest between Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed, plus Alaska's Dan Sullivan versus Mary Peltola and Nebraska's dynamics, similarly reflect tight fundamentals and limited separation in current data. Late-cycle events such as debates, final ad waves, turnout shifts, or economic indicators could widen or reorder these probabilities before November 3.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$39,746
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

36%
icon for Will Texas have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Will Texas have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

15%
icon for Wird das Senatsrennen 2026 in Texas innerhalb von 5 % liegen?

Wird das Senatsrennen 2026 in Texas innerhalb von 5 % liegen?

84%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Closest Senate Race?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 16 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Texas" mit 15%, gefolgt von „Iowa" mit 14%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 15¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 15% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Closest Senate Race?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $39.7K generiert, seit der Markt am Jun 26, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Closest Senate Race?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 16 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Closest Senate Race?" ist „Texas" mit 15%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 15% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Iowa" mit 14%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Closest Senate Race?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.