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Politik·Senat

Closest Governor's Race?

icon for Closest Governor's Race?
Politik·Senat

Closest Governor's Race?

Kansas 14.5%

Ohio 13.6%

Iowa 9.3%

Nevada 9%

Polymarket
NEU

Kansas 14.5%

Ohio 13.6%

Iowa 9.3%

Nevada 9%

Polymarket
NEU

Kansas

$357 Vol.

17%

Ohio

$333 Vol.

14%

Iowa

$525 Vol.

9%

Nevada

$1,986 Vol.

9%

Texas

$1,038 Vol.

9%

Wisconsin

$250 Vol.

7%

Georgia

$194 Vol.

6%

Colorado

$238 Vol.

5%

Florida

$193 Vol.

5%

Michigan

$324 Vol.

4%

Oregon

$299 Vol.

4%

Alaska

$201 Vol.

3%

Arizona

$259 Vol.

3%

New Hampshire

$250 Vol.

2%

New Mexico

$189 Vol.

1%

Maine

$297 Vol.

1%

Vermont

$171 Vol.

1%

Minnesota

$209 Vol.

1%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open-seat and competitive 2026 gubernatorial contests drive the dispersed trader consensus, with Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada leading as potential closest races. Forecasters rate multiple contests as toss-ups or leans, including Iowa's matchup between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn, Wisconsin's tight polling between candidates near 43-44 percent, and Nevada where incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo holds slim edges in recent surveys. Texas polls show Governor Greg Abbott leading by 1-6 points, while Kansas's open race after Democratic term limits and Ohio's vacancy create opportunities for narrow margins in states with modest partisan leans. Upcoming August and May primaries, candidate recruitment, and shifting economic conditions could further tighten or separate these outcomes before November voting.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,312
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open-seat and competitive 2026 gubernatorial contests drive the dispersed trader consensus, with Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada leading as potential closest races. Forecasters rate multiple contests as toss-ups or leans, including Iowa's matchup between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn, Wisconsin's tight polling between candidates near 43-44 percent, and Nevada where incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo holds slim edges in recent surveys. Texas polls show Governor Greg Abbott leading by 1-6 points, while Kansas's open race after Democratic term limits and Ohio's vacancy create opportunities for narrow margins in states with modest partisan leans. Upcoming August and May primaries, candidate recruitment, and shifting economic conditions could further tighten or separate these outcomes before November voting.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,312
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Verwandte

icon for Will Maine have the closest Senate race in 2026?

Will Maine have the closest Senate race in 2026?

17%
icon for Wird das Senatsrennen 2026 in Iowa innerhalb von 5 % liegen?

Wird das Senatsrennen 2026 in Iowa innerhalb von 5 % liegen?

85%
Ja
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei bei den Zwischenwahlen zum US-Repräsentantenhaus 2026 die landesweite Stimmenmehrheit mit einem Vorsprung von 8 % bis 10 % gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei bei den Zwischenwahlen zum US-Repräsentantenhaus 2026 die landesweite Stimmenmehrheit mit einem Vorsprung von 8 % bis 10 % gewinnen?

28%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Closest Governor's Race?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 18 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Kansas" mit 17%, gefolgt von „Ohio" mit 14%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 17¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 17% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Closest Governor's Race?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jun 29, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Closest Governor's Race?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 18 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Closest Governor's Race?" ist „Kansas" mit 17%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 17% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Ohio" mit 14%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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