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icon for CA-36 Wahlsieg für das Repräsentantenhaus
Politik·California Midterm

CA-36 Wahlsieg für das Repräsentantenhaus

icon for CA-36 Wahlsieg für das Repräsentantenhaus
Politik·California Midterm

CA-36 Wahlsieg für das Repräsentantenhaus

Demokrat 25-30% 42%

Demokrat 40-45% 40%

Demokrat 30-35% 40%

Demokrat 45-50% 39%

Polymarket
NEU

Demokrat 25-30% 42%

Demokrat 40-45% 40%

Demokrat 30-35% 40%

Demokrat 45-50% 39%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Demokrat 55%+

Demokrat 55%+

$0 Vol.

22%

icon for Demokrat 50-55%

Demokrat 50-55%

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Demokrat 45-50%

Demokrat 45-50%

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Demokrat 40-45%

Demokrat 40-45%

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Demokrat 35-40%

Demokrat 35-40%

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Demokrat 30-35%

Demokrat 30-35%

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Demokrat 25-30%

Demokrat 25-30%

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Demokrat 15-25%

Demokrat 15-25%

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Demokrat 0-15%

Demokrat 0-15%

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Republikaner gewinnt

Republikaner gewinnt

$0 Vol.

36%

The 2026 CA-36 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu and Republican Houston Brignano advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 36th congressional district on November 3. The district's strong Democratic registration edge and consistent voting patterns underpin trader consensus around substantial Democratic margins, with multiple 25-55% buckets priced near 36-40%. Limited Republican fundraising, the absence of recent competitive polling, and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as safe or solid Democratic keep exact margin probabilities closely aligned. Late-cycle national shifts, turnout surges in Los Angeles County precincts, or unexpected campaign developments could widen separation among the buckets before Election Day.

The 2026 CA-36 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-36 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 CA-36 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu and Republican Houston Brignano advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 36th congressional district on November 3. The district's strong Democratic registration edge and consistent voting patterns underpin trader consensus around substantial Democratic margins, with multiple 25-55% buckets priced near 36-40%. Limited Republican fundraising, the absence of recent competitive polling, and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as safe or solid Democratic keep exact margin probabilities closely aligned. Late-cycle national shifts, turnout surges in Los Angeles County precincts, or unexpected campaign developments could widen separation among the buckets before Election Day.

The 2026 CA-36 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-36 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-36 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Verwandte

icon for Wird ein Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk CA-39 im Jahr 2026 mit 30 % oder mehr Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird ein Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk CA-39 im Jahr 2026 mit 30 % oder mehr Vorsprung gewinnen?

44%
Ja
icon for Wird ein Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Wahlkreis CA-35 im Jahr 2026 mit einem Vorsprung von 20%-25% gewinnen?

Wird ein Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Wahlkreis CA-35 im Jahr 2026 mit einem Vorsprung von 20%-25% gewinnen?

42%
Ja
icon for Wird ein Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk CA-38 im Jahr 2026 mit einem Vorsprung von 5%-10% gewinnen?

Wird ein Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk CA-38 im Jahr 2026 mit einem Vorsprung von 5%-10% gewinnen?

44%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„CA-36 Wahlsieg für das Repräsentantenhaus" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 10 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Demokrat 25-30%" mit 42%, gefolgt von „Demokrat 40-45%" mit 40%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 42¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 42% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„CA-36 Wahlsieg für das Repräsentantenhaus" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 2, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „CA-36 Wahlsieg für das Repräsentantenhaus" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 10 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „CA-36 Wahlsieg für das Repräsentantenhaus" ist „Demokrat 25-30%" mit 42%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 42% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Demokrat 40-45%" mit 40%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „CA-36 Wahlsieg für das Repräsentantenhaus" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.