**Jim Desmond (R) and Marni von Wilpert (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary in the newly redrawn CA-48, an open seat after Darrell Issa’s retirement.** Proposition 50 shifted the district’s partisan lean roughly 18 points toward Democrats, producing a slight registration edge and D+2 PVI, yet the race remains competitive. Desmond consolidated Republican support with Trump’s endorsement and strong name recognition from his county supervisor role, while von Wilpert emerged as the leading Democrat from a crowded field. Similar fundraising totals, overlapping voter bases in San Diego and Riverside counties, and the absence of an incumbent keep the contest close. Trader consensus on narrow margins reflects uncertainty over turnout patterns, late advertising, and any national political shifts before November 3.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-48 Wahlergebnis bei den Parlamentswahlen
CA-48 Wahlergebnis bei den Parlamentswahlen
Demokrat 9-12% 41%
Demokrat 6-9% 41%
Republikaner 3 %+ 41%
Demokrat 15-18% 41%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokrat 21%+
39%
Demokrat 18-21%
38%
Demokrat 15-18%
41%
Demokrat 12-15%
39%
Demokrat 9-12%
41%
Demokrat 6-9%
41%
Demokrat 3-6%
37%
Demokrat 0-3%
37%
Republikaner 0-3%
38%
Republikaner 3 %+
41%
Demokrat 9-12% 41%
Demokrat 6-9% 41%
Republikaner 3 %+ 41%
Demokrat 15-18% 41%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokrat 21%+
$0 Vol.
39%
Demokrat 18-21%
$0 Vol.
38%
Demokrat 15-18%
$0 Vol.
41%
Demokrat 12-15%
$0 Vol.
39%
Demokrat 9-12%
$0 Vol.
41%
Demokrat 6-9%
$0 Vol.
41%
Demokrat 3-6%
$0 Vol.
37%
Demokrat 0-3%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republikaner 0-3%
$0 Vol.
38%
Republikaner 3 %+
$0 Vol.
41%
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Jim Desmond (R) and Marni von Wilpert (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary in the newly redrawn CA-48, an open seat after Darrell Issa’s retirement.** Proposition 50 shifted the district’s partisan lean roughly 18 points toward Democrats, producing a slight registration edge and D+2 PVI, yet the race remains competitive. Desmond consolidated Republican support with Trump’s endorsement and strong name recognition from his county supervisor role, while von Wilpert emerged as the leading Democrat from a crowded field. Similar fundraising totals, overlapping voter bases in San Diego and Riverside counties, and the absence of an incumbent keep the contest close. Trader consensus on narrow margins reflects uncertainty over turnout patterns, late advertising, and any national political shifts before November 3.
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Jim Desmond (R) and Marni von Wilpert (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary in the newly redrawn CA-48, an open seat after Darrell Issa’s retirement.** Proposition 50 shifted the district’s partisan lean roughly 18 points toward Democrats, producing a slight registration edge and D+2 PVI, yet the race remains competitive. Desmond consolidated Republican support with Trump’s endorsement and strong name recognition from his county supervisor role, while von Wilpert emerged as the leading Democrat from a crowded field. Similar fundraising totals, overlapping voter bases in San Diego and Riverside counties, and the absence of an incumbent keep the contest close. Trader consensus on narrow margins reflects uncertainty over turnout patterns, late advertising, and any national political shifts before November 3.
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Jim Desmond (R) and Marni von Wilpert (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary in the newly redrawn CA-48, an open seat after Darrell Issa’s retirement.** Proposition 50 shifted the district’s partisan lean roughly 18 points toward Democrats, producing a slight registration edge and D+2 PVI, yet the race remains competitive. Desmond consolidated Republican support with Trump’s endorsement and strong name recognition from his county supervisor role, while von Wilpert emerged as the leading Democrat from a crowded field. Similar fundraising totals, overlapping voter bases in San Diego and Riverside counties, and the absence of an incumbent keep the contest close. Trader consensus on narrow margins reflects uncertainty over turnout patterns, late advertising, and any national political shifts before November 3.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird ein Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus 2026 im Wahlkreis CA-47 mit 30 % oder mehr Vorsprung gewinnen?
41%
Ja
Wird ein Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk CA-46 im Jahr 2026 mit 25%-30% Vorsprung gewinnen?
42%
Ja
Wird ein Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk CA-49 im Jahr 2026 mit 0%-5% Vorsprung gewinnen?
41%
Ja
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen