Christopher Luxon remains New Zealand’s prime minister following his April 2026 survival of a National Party caucus confidence vote amid coalition polling weakness. Recent Reid Research and Taxpayers’ Union–Curia surveys through July show National support stuck near 28–29 percent and Luxon’s preferred-prime-minister rating in the low 20s, yet no fresh caucus challenges, resignation signals, or procedural triggers have emerged since the spring vote. With the next general election fixed for November 7, party rules and coalition dynamics favor continuity through the immediate term. Traders therefore assign an 87 percent probability that Luxon stays in office past the September 30 cutoff, reflecting the absence of any active leadership pressure or institutional mechanism capable of forcing an earlier exit.