Geopolitical supply disruptions from U.S.-Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven WTI crude futures into the mid-$90s as of early June 2026, underpinning the 69.5% market-implied probability for a June settlement above $84. Sharp inventory draws averaging millions of barrels daily, combined with elevated risk premiums, have sustained backwardation in the futures curve and limited downside moves despite partial diplomatic signals. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on Polymarket, reflects these near-term tightness factors over longer-term surplus forecasts from non-OPEC supply growth. Weekly EIA inventory releases and any shifts in Hormuz shipping access remain key near-term catalysts that could influence final settlement levels within the current elevated range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWorauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
>$84 70%
$77-$84 18%
70–77 $ 8.1%
$63-$70 2.1%
$212,843 Vol.
$212,843 Vol.
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
70–77 $
8%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
70%
>$84 70%
$77-$84 18%
70–77 $ 8.1%
$63-$70 2.1%
$212,843 Vol.
$212,843 Vol.
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
70–77 $
8%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
70%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical supply disruptions from U.S.-Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven WTI crude futures into the mid-$90s as of early June 2026, underpinning the 69.5% market-implied probability for a June settlement above $84. Sharp inventory draws averaging millions of barrels daily, combined with elevated risk premiums, have sustained backwardation in the futures curve and limited downside moves despite partial diplomatic signals. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on Polymarket, reflects these near-term tightness factors over longer-term surplus forecasts from non-OPEC supply growth. Weekly EIA inventory releases and any shifts in Hormuz shipping access remain key near-term catalysts that could influence final settlement levels within the current elevated range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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