Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 43.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 9-11, reflecting his baseline cadence of 20-30 posts daily during recent quiet periods without viral controversies or SpaceX launches. Over April 6-8, activity hovered around 20+ engagements per day on Tesla inventory alerts and xAI Colossus expansions, mirroring the 26.5% odds for 40-64 and 21.5% for 90-114, as seen in resolved companion markets. Absent political firestorms or product reveals—like Intel's Terafab partnership last week—postings focus on FSD safety clips and cultural commentary, sustaining moderate volume. Watch for Tesla earnings teases or Grok updates through April 11 that could spike toward higher bins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert65-89 44%
40-64 25%
90-114 22%
115-139 5%
$247,112 Vol.
$247,112 Vol.
11. Apr. 2026
<40
2%
40-64
25%
65-89
44%
90-114
22%
115-139
5%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 44%
40-64 25%
90-114 22%
115-139 5%
$247,112 Vol.
$247,112 Vol.
11. Apr. 2026
<40
$29,681 Vol.
2%
40-64
$15,023 Vol.
25%
65-89
$15,362 Vol.
44%
90-114
$11,370 Vol.
22%
115-139
$11,321 Vol.
5%
140-164
$26,661 Vol.
1%
165-189
$18,842 Vol.
1%
190-214
$33,428 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$37,145 Vol.
<1%
240+
$48,772 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 43.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 9-11, reflecting his baseline cadence of 20-30 posts daily during recent quiet periods without viral controversies or SpaceX launches. Over April 6-8, activity hovered around 20+ engagements per day on Tesla inventory alerts and xAI Colossus expansions, mirroring the 26.5% odds for 40-64 and 21.5% for 90-114, as seen in resolved companion markets. Absent political firestorms or product reveals—like Intel's Terafab partnership last week—postings focus on FSD safety clips and cultural commentary, sustaining moderate volume. Watch for Tesla earnings teases or Grok updates through April 11 that could spike toward higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 6, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volumen
$247,112Enddatum
11. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 6, 2026, 12:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 43.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 9-11, reflecting his baseline cadence of 20-30 posts daily during recent quiet periods without viral controversies or SpaceX launches. Over April 6-8, activity hovered around 20+ engagements per day on Tesla inventory alerts and xAI Colossus expansions, mirroring the 26.5% odds for 40-64 and 21.5% for 90-114, as seen in resolved companion markets. Absent political firestorms or product reveals—like Intel's Terafab partnership last week—postings focus on FSD safety clips and cultural commentary, sustaining moderate volume. Watch for Tesla earnings teases or Grok updates through April 11 that could spike toward higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$247,112Enddatum
11. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 6, 2026, 12:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 43.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 9-11, reflecting his baseline cadence of 20-30 posts daily during recent quiet periods without viral controversies or SpaceX launches. Over April 6-8, activity hovered around 20+ engagements per day on Tesla inventory alerts and xAI Colossus expansions, mirroring the 26.5% odds for 40-64 and 21.5% for 90-114, as seen in resolved companion markets. Absent political firestorms or product reveals—like Intel's Terafab partnership last week—postings focus on FSD safety clips and cultural commentary, sustaining moderate volume. Watch for Tesla earnings teases or Grok updates through April 11 that could spike toward higher bins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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