Resilient U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance underpin the 94% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Solid GDP expansion, stable unemployment near 4.2-4.3%, and strong productivity growth contrast with only modest inflation moderation—June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%—driven by energy supply shocks rather than demand weakness. The FOMC’s July decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, with several participants projecting a hike by year-end and futures pricing rates near 3.8% or higher, reflects this baseline. A major escalation in Middle East tensions triggering a deep recession or systemic stress could still prompt emergency easing, though current conditions show little sign of such catalysts.