Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate Beijing's peak temperature on June 27 will likely fall between 33–35 °C, with afternoon radiative heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds as the main driver. Recent observations show highs near 29–33 °C amid scattered showers that can suppress maxima by 1–2 °C through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Ensemble spread arises from uncertainty in convective timing and urban heat-island amplification, while climatological baselines for late June place average highs around 31–32 °C. Updated short-range guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold most likely to resolve the market.