Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 19, with implied probabilities tightly split between extremes like 37°C or higher (25.5%) and 27°C or below (25.0%), driven by divergent global model outputs from GFS and ECMWF amid the seasonal transition to the early rainy season. NiMet's February 2026 outlook predicts above-normal temperatures nationwide but warns of early thunderstorms and dry spells, introducing variability through cloud cover that reduces daytime insolation and strengthens cooling sea breezes from the Atlantic. Historical April highs average 32°C, rarely exceeding 36°C, yet recent early-month swings—including a 35°C peak on April 10—fuel bets on outliers; key differentiators include ITCZ positioning and morning humidity trapping heat versus convective activity capping peaks. New 00Z model runs and NiMet bulletins expected within 24 hours could sharpen odds.