The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently influencing western Luzon drives the closely matched market odds clustered around 31–33 °C, as increased cloud cover and scattered afternoon thunderstorms limit solar heating and surface warming. PAGASA outlooks project Metro Manila highs near 32 °C on July 19 with a 60 % rain probability, consistent with typical July conditions where monsoon moisture and convective activity suppress peaks below seasonal averages of 30–33 °C. Short-term model variability in the timing and coverage of localized storms creates the tight spread between 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes, while lower probabilities for 34 °C or higher reflect the low likelihood of clearer skies. Updated PAGASA guidance and global forecast model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this daily maximum temperature market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Manila am 19. Juli?
33°C 83%
34°C 10.9%
35°C <1%
26°C oder darunter <1%
$26,973 Vol.
$26,973 Vol.
26°C oder darunter
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
83%
34°C
11%
35°C
1%
36°C oder höher
<1%
33°C 83%
34°C 10.9%
35°C <1%
26°C oder darunter <1%
$26,973 Vol.
$26,973 Vol.
26°C oder darunter
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
83%
34°C
11%
35°C
1%
36°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently influencing western Luzon drives the closely matched market odds clustered around 31–33 °C, as increased cloud cover and scattered afternoon thunderstorms limit solar heating and surface warming. PAGASA outlooks project Metro Manila highs near 32 °C on July 19 with a 60 % rain probability, consistent with typical July conditions where monsoon moisture and convective activity suppress peaks below seasonal averages of 30–33 °C. Short-term model variability in the timing and coverage of localized storms creates the tight spread between 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes, while lower probabilities for 34 °C or higher reflect the low likelihood of clearer skies. Updated PAGASA guidance and global forecast model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this daily maximum temperature market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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