Recent short-term model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks point to typical mid-July subtropical conditions—high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers or thunderstorms—keeping daytime maxima clustered near 30–31°C for July 18. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while the urban heat island effect and weak southerly flow provide modest upward pressure, explaining the tight market clustering around these outcomes versus lower probabilities for 29°C or 32°C+ thresholds. Seasonal forecasts already anticipate normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing warming trends, but day-to-day variability from convective activity and possible sea-breeze modulation creates the observed uncertainty in the two-day window before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 18. Juli?
Höchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 18. Juli?
30°C 100.0%
25°C oder darunter <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$177,823 Vol.
$177,823 Vol.
18. Juli 2026
25°C oder darunter
Nein
26°C
Nein
27°C
Nein
28°C
Nein
29°C
Nein
30°C
Ja
31°C
Nein
32°C
Nein
33°C
Nein
34°C
Nein
35°C oder höher
Nein
30°C 100.0%
25°C oder darunter <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$177,823 Vol.
$177,823 Vol.
18. Juli 2026
25°C oder darunter
$1,566 Vol.
Nein
26°C
$4,840 Vol.
Nein
27°C
$8,355 Vol.
Nein
28°C
$20,248 Vol.
Nein
29°C
$19,778 Vol.
Nein
30°C
$40,782 Vol.
Ja
31°C
$23,597 Vol.
Nein
32°C
$27,024 Vol.
Nein
33°C
$18,690 Vol.
Nein
34°C
$8,840 Vol.
Nein
35°C oder höher
$4,104 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-term model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks point to typical mid-July subtropical conditions—high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers or thunderstorms—keeping daytime maxima clustered near 30–31°C for July 18. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while the urban heat island effect and weak southerly flow provide modest upward pressure, explaining the tight market clustering around these outcomes versus lower probabilities for 29°C or 32°C+ thresholds. Seasonal forecasts already anticipate normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing warming trends, but day-to-day variability from convective activity and possible sea-breeze modulation creates the observed uncertainty in the two-day window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$177,823Enddatum
18. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-term model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks point to typical mid-July subtropical conditions—high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers or thunderstorms—keeping daytime maxima clustered near 30–31°C for July 18. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while the urban heat island effect and weak southerly flow provide modest upward pressure, explaining the tight market clustering around these outcomes versus lower probabilities for 29°C or 32°C+ thresholds. Seasonal forecasts already anticipate normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing warming trends, but day-to-day variability from convective activity and possible sea-breeze modulation creates the observed uncertainty in the two-day window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$177,823Enddatum
18. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Recent short-term model guidance and Hong Kong Observatory outlooks point to typical mid-July subtropical conditions—high humidity, light winds, and scattered showers or thunderstorms—keeping daytime maxima clustered near 30–31°C for July 18. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while the urban heat island effect and weak southerly flow provide modest upward pressure, explaining the tight market clustering around these outcomes versus lower probabilities for 29°C or 32°C+ thresholds. Seasonal forecasts already anticipate normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing warming trends, but day-to-day variability from convective activity and possible sea-breeze modulation creates the observed uncertainty in the two-day window before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen