PAGASA's 5:00 AM forecast for May 5 projects a maximum temperature of exactly 35°C at Manila's Port Area station under partly cloudy skies influenced by easterlies, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on this outcome as the market nears resolution. Yesterday's observed high reached 34.9°C amid similar conditions, aligning with Metro Manila's May climatology—averaging 34°C highs during the hot-dry season but occasionally spiking to 36°C due to urban heat island effects and solar insolation. Model ensembles show low variance around 35°C, with isolated rainshowers posing minimal risk of suppression. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies boosting shortwave radiation or unexpected convective cooling, though official observations through evening will confirm the peak, with top-10 highest temperatures updated in real time by PAGASA.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Manila on May 5?
35°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$38,545 Vol.
$38,545 Vol.
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$38,545 Vol.
$38,545 Vol.
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
PAGASA's 5:00 AM forecast for May 5 projects a maximum temperature of exactly 35°C at Manila's Port Area station under partly cloudy skies influenced by easterlies, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on this outcome as the market nears resolution. Yesterday's observed high reached 34.9°C amid similar conditions, aligning with Metro Manila's May climatology—averaging 34°C highs during the hot-dry season but occasionally spiking to 36°C due to urban heat island effects and solar insolation. Model ensembles show low variance around 35°C, with isolated rainshowers posing minimal risk of suppression. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies boosting shortwave radiation or unexpected convective cooling, though official observations through evening will confirm the peak, with top-10 highest temperatures updated in real time by PAGASA.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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