Current ensemble forecasts from major models position Munich's July 31 peak near 34–36°C, aligning with the near-tie between 35°C and 36°C market-implied odds. A strong high-pressure ridge over central Europe favors clear skies and subsidence warming, while light southerly flow advects warmer air from the Mediterranean; however, subtle differences in timing of maximum insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and possible afternoon cumulus development create the spread between 35°C and 36°C outcomes. Official stations record daily maxima under these conditions with roughly 1–2°C uncertainty from local siting and measurement timing, keeping 37°C a plausible but lower-probability tail. Updated model runs and the next 48-hour forecast refinements will likely tighten resolution before market close.