Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Paris on May 9, confirmed by official Météo-France observations at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station—the market's resolution source—which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to cloudier conditions, light winds, and no precipitation. This outcome aligned precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, and Météo-France AROME ensembles clustering at 23–25°C, elevated 5°C above the historical May 9 norm of 19°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over northern France. Realistic challenges, such as rare sensor recalibration or late data revisions, proved negligible, with intraday peaks already hitting 24°C by early afternoon validating the positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Paris on May 9?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 9?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$116,646 Vol.
$116,646 Vol.
9. Mai 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$116,646 Vol.
$116,646 Vol.
9. Mai 2026
18°C or below
$5,010 Vol.
No
19°C
$5,908 Vol.
No
20°C
$6,873 Vol.
No
21°C
$8,930 Vol.
No
22°C
$16,622 Vol.
No
23°C
$15,264 Vol.
No
24°C
$18,590 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$17,045 Vol.
No
26°C
$11,746 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,301 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$5,355 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Paris on May 9, confirmed by official Météo-France observations at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station—the market's resolution source—which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to cloudier conditions, light winds, and no precipitation. This outcome aligned precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, and Météo-France AROME ensembles clustering at 23–25°C, elevated 5°C above the historical May 9 norm of 19°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over northern France. Realistic challenges, such as rare sensor recalibration or late data revisions, proved negligible, with intraday peaks already hitting 24°C by early afternoon validating the positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 7, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$116,646Enddatum
9. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 7, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Paris on May 9, confirmed by official Météo-France observations at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station—the market's resolution source—which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to cloudier conditions, light winds, and no precipitation. This outcome aligned precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, and Météo-France AROME ensembles clustering at 23–25°C, elevated 5°C above the historical May 9 norm of 19°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over northern France. Realistic challenges, such as rare sensor recalibration or late data revisions, proved negligible, with intraday peaks already hitting 24°C by early afternoon validating the positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$116,646Enddatum
9. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 7, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Paris on May 9, confirmed by official Météo-France observations at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station—the market's resolution source—which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to cloudier conditions, light winds, and no precipitation. This outcome aligned precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, and Météo-France AROME ensembles clustering at 23–25°C, elevated 5°C above the historical May 9 norm of 19°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over northern France. Realistic challenges, such as rare sensor recalibration or late data revisions, proved negligible, with intraday peaks already hitting 24°C by early afternoon validating the positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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